Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9
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发表时间：
2014-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
C. Tebaldi;J. Arblaster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Tebaldi;J. Arblaster
我们回顾了模式缩放技术背后的想法，并专注于其价值和局限性，因为它的使用影响评估和综合评估模型。我们提出了估计模式的温度和降水变化的最新瞬态模拟从耦合模型相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5），侧重于多模式的平均模式，并表征这些模式的变异性的来源跨模型和场景。的模式进行比较，从先前的一组实验中获得的，根据CMIP 3。我们估计CMIP3和CMIP5的结果之间出现的差异的意义，通过自举练习，同时也考虑到在场景和模型集合组成的根本差异。总而言之，当作为多模型平均值计算时，温度和降水模式中的地理特征的鲁棒性通过这种比较得到证实。在新模拟的总体平均值中，每度全球变暖，变化的强度（相对于全球温度变化的温暖和凉爽地区，以及干燥和潮湿地区）都有所提高。稳定的情况下，在新的一组模拟允许调查的性能的技术，一旦系统已经接近平衡。总体而言，公认的有效性的技术在近似的强制信号的变化下，温室气体浓度的增加得到证实。
We review the ideas behind the pattern scaling technique, and focus on its value and limitations given its use for impact assessment and within integrated assessment models. We present estimates of patterns for temperature and precipitation change from the latest transient simulations available from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), focusing on multi-model mean patterns, and characterizing the sources of variability of these patterns across models and scenarios. The patterns are compared to those obtained from the previous set of experiments, under CMIP3. We estimate the significance of the emerging differences between CMIP3 and CMIP5 results through a bootstrap exercise, while also taking into account the fundamental differences in scenario and model ensemble composition. All in all, the robustness of the geographical features in patterns of temperature and precipitation, when computed as multi-model means, is confirmed by this comparison. The intensity of the change (in both the warmer and cooler areas with respect to global temperature change, and the drier and wetter regions) is overall heightened per degree of global warming in the ensemble mean of the new simulations. The presence of stabilized scenarios in the new set of simulations allows investigation of the performance of the technique once the system has gotten close to equilibrium. Overall, the well established validity of the technique in approximating the forced signal of change under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is confirmed.