Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change
Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change
复制标题
由于气候变化，全球主要产区阿拉比卡咖啡适宜性的预计变化
作者：
Oriana Ovalle;P. Läderach;C. Bunn;M. Obersteiner;G. Schroth
区域研究表明，气候变化将影响当前产区阿拉比卡咖啡（Coffea arabica）的气候适宜性。气温升高和降水模式变化将导致产量下降、质量下降并增加病虫害压力。这是第一项关于气候变化对阿拉比卡咖啡种植适宜性影响的全球研究。我们根据 21 个全球流通模型的预测，对 2050 年代气候适宜性变化下阿拉比卡咖啡的全球分布进行了建模。结果表明，中美洲低海拔地区适合种植阿拉比卡咖啡的地区有所减少。在南美洲靠近赤道的地方，较高的海拔可能会受益，但较高的纬度会失去适宜性。埃塞俄比亚和肯尼亚的咖啡产区预计将变得更加合适，但印度和越南的咖啡产区将变得不太合适。在全球范围内，我们预测低海拔和高纬度地区的气候适宜性会下降，这可能会在生产阿拉比卡咖啡的主要地区之间转移生产。
Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Baca M;Läderach P;Haggar J;Schroth G;Ovalle O
通讯作者：
Ovalle O