Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?
Can Rogue Waves Be Predicted Using Characteristic Wave Parameters?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2018jc013958
复制
发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Marsh, R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cattrell, A. D.;Srokosz, M.;Marsh, R.
流氓波是比周围海洋更大的海洋表面波，可能对船舶和海上结构构成危险。它们通常被认为是不可预测的，没有复杂的波场测量和计算密集型计算，这在大多数应用中是不可行的;因此，需要快速预测器。在这里，我们整理，质量控制，并分析了最大的数据集的单点现场测量从表面以下的波浪浮标，以寻找流氓波发生的预测。我们发现，对大量海洋状态参数的分析没有产生任何预测因子，因为包含异常波的海洋子集位于不包含异常波的海洋集合内。然而，风暴潮的谱带宽参数呈现出与正常浪不同的概率分布，但这些参数在海浪预报中很少提供。当考虑位置时，可以将异常波的发生趋势识别为该位置处的平均海况特征的函数。这些趋势与特征海况参数平均有效波高和平均零上升波周期呈幂律关系。我们发现，流氓波的发生频率和它们的生成机制在空间上是不均匀的，每个位置都可能有自己独特的敏感性，在沿海增加。我们的结论是，可预测的流氓波发生的预测将需要特定的位置和反映其生成机制。因此，如果给定位置和足够长的海况特征历史记录，就可以为海员和海上作业人员获得发生的可能性。简明语言概要流氓波是比周围海况预期的要大得多的波浪，其大小和意外性质可能对船舶和海上结构物构成危险。它们通常被认为是不可预测的，没有复杂的计算。在这里，我们试图找到巨浪发生与其发生的海况特征之间的关系，以绕过这一点并进行预测。在这里，我们发现，当所有的数据进行批量分析时，只能看到微弱的关系;然而，当数据进行空间分析时，可以发现波高和波周期和流氓波发生之间的关系。我们发现，巨浪的数量及其原因在空间上有所不同，并注意到每个位置可能有自己独特的敏感性，这种敏感性在沿海地区会增加。我们的结论是，可预测的流氓波发生的预测将需要特定的位置，反映他们的原因。因此，在给定位置和海况特征的足够长的历史记录的情况下，可以为海员和近海操作员获得发生的可能性。
Rogue waves are ocean surface waves larger than the surrounding sea that can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often deemed unpredictable without complex measurement of the wavefield and computationally intensive calculation, which is infeasible in most applications; consequently, there a need for fast predictors. Here we collate, quality control, and analyze the largest data set of single-point field measurements from surface following wave buoys to search for predictors of rogue wave occurrence. We find that analysis of the sea state parameters in bulk yields no predictors, as the subset of seas containing rogue waves sits within the set of seas without. However, spectral bandwidth parameters of rogue seas display different probability distributions to normal seas, but these parameters are rarely provided in wave forecasts. When location is accounted for, trends can be identified in the occurrence of rogue waves as a function of the average sea state characteristics at that location. These trends follow a power law relationship with the characteristic sea state parameters: mean significant wave height and mean zero upcrossing wave period. We find that frequency of occurrence of rogue waves and their generating mechanism is not spatially uniform, and each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities, which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific and reflective of their generation mechanism. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators.Plain Language Summary Rogue waves are waves much larger than expected for the surrounding sea state and their size and unexpected nature can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures. They are often thought to be unpredictable without complex computational calculation. Here we try to find the relationship between rogue wave occurrence and the characteristics of the sea state they occur in to circumnavigate this and allow prediction. Here we find that when all the data is analysed in bulk only weak relationships can be seen; however, when the data is analysed spatially relationships can be found between wave height and wave period and rogue wave occurrence. We find that the number of rogue waves and their cause differs spatially and note that each location is likely to have its own unique sensitivities which increase in the coastal seas. We conclude that forecastable predictors of rogue wave occurrence will need to be location specific, reflecting their cause. Therefore, given location and a sufficiently long historical record of sea state characteristics, the likelihood of occurrence can be obtained for mariners and offshore operators.