Comments on the Underenumeration of the U.S. Census, 1850–1880
Comments on the Underenumeration of the U.S. Census, 1850–1880
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对 1850-1880 年美国人口普查统计不足的评论
DOI：
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发表时间：
1991
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Donald H. Parkerson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Donald H. Parkerson
正如furstenberg等人（1979:497）十多年前所建议的那样，“只有当我们非常了解我们信息来源的局限性时，定量历史的巨大前景才能实现。”本文通过评估社会科学研究人员最重要的信息来源——美国人口普查的局限性，遵循了这一建议。当然，枚举不足的程度可能严重影响许多学科的研究。例如，我们对移民率的估计可能被夸大了。在名义记录联系的过程中，研究人员通常假设那些没有在联系的人口普查文件中列出的人是外迁的，而实际上，许多人可能只是被人口普查人员遗漏了。因此，过去的人口（尤其是城市人口）可能看起来比实际情况更具流动性。人口普查统计不足也可能夸大选民投票率。如果一个特定社区的人口普查列出了1215名合格选民，选举结果显示有1150人参加了选举，那么投票率估计为95%。然而，如果只有10%的合格选民没有被人口普查人员计算在内，那么选民参与的估计水平将下降到85%。最后，我们过去对农村经济的理解可能会受到计数不足的影响。如果更频繁地列举更成功的拥有土地的农民，而忽略生产率较低的农场租户，农业生产可能会被夸大。简而言之，美国人口普查的准确性应该是社会科学历史学家关注的中心问题。
As furstenberg et al. (1979: 497) suggested over a decade ago, “The enormous promise of quantitative history can only be fulfilled when we are intimately acquainted with the limitations of our sources of information.” This collection of articles follows that suggestion by assessing the limitations of perhaps the most important source of information for social science researchers: the U.S. census. Certainly the degree of underenumeration may seriously affect research in many disciplines. For example, our estimates of migration rates might be inflated. In the process of nominal record linkage, researchers typically assume that those who are not listed in the linked census document out-migrated, when in reality many may simply have been missed by the census taker. As a result, past populations (especially in cities) may appear to have been much more mobile than they actually were. Census underenumeration might also exaggerate voter turnout. If the census in a particular community listed 1,215 eligible voters and election returns showed that 1,150 voted in an election, the voter turnout would be estimated at 95%. However, if just 10% of the eligible voters were not counted by the census taker, the estimated level of voter participation would decline to 85%. Finally, our understanding of the rural economy in the past might be affected by underenumeration. Agricultural production might be overstated if the more successful landowning farmers were more often enumerated and less productive farm tenants were missed. In short, the accuracy of the U.S. census should be a central concern to social science historians.