Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture
Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014010
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schlenker, Wolfram;Lobell, David B.
人们普遍关注气候变化对撒哈拉以南非洲农业的影响，以及帮助适应这些变化的最有效投资，但估计生产风险和优先投资的科学基础相当有限。在这里，我们表明，通过将历史作物生产和天气数据结合到面板分析中，几种主要非洲作物的产量对气候变化的反应出现了一个强大的模型。到本世纪中叶，在我们首选的模型规范下，玉米、高粱、小米、花生和木薯的SSA总产量变化的平均估计值分别为-22、-17、-17、-18和-8%。在除木薯以外的所有情况下，损失超过7%的概率为95%，超过27%的概率为5%。此外，平均产量最高的国家预计产量损失最大，这表明施肥良好的现代种子品种更容易受到与热量有关的损失。
There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are -22, -17, -17, -18, and -8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.