Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of changing emissions and changing meteorology on ozone levels between 2002 and 2005 in the eastern US
Dynamic evaluation of CMAQ part I: Separating the effects of changing emissions and changing meteorology on ozone levels between 2002 and 2005 in the eastern US
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DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.12.038
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Timin, Brian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Foley, Kristen M.;Hogrefe, Christian;Timin, Brian
对社区多尺度空气质量（CMAQ）模型系统5.0.1版进行了动态评估，以评估该模型预测2002 - 2005年臭氧水平变化的能力，这一时期的特征是与EPA的氮氧化物国家实施计划相关的排放减少以及移动源排放的显著减少。将2002年和2005年夏季的模式结果与以前版本的CMAQ模拟结果进行比较，以评估模式更新对预测污染物响应的影响。对排放、气象和化学处理模式的改变对模拟臭氧浓度有重大影响。虽然与以前的模拟相比，这两年夏季臭氧高值的中值偏差减小了，但该模式仍然低估了2002年至2005年美国东部观测到的臭氧减少。额外的“交叉”模拟被用来将模型预测的臭氧变化分解为由于排放的变化、由于气象的变化和任何剩余的不能由这两个组成部分单独解释的变化。分解表明，排放控制导致模拟的夏季高臭氧的减少，几乎是单独归因于气象变化的减少的两倍。通过消除控制期间气象的影响来量化追溯性排放控制的影响，对于向决策者传达国家控制措施的净效益是一种有价值的方法。Elsevier Ltd.出版。
A dynamic evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 5.0.1 was conducted to evaluate the model's ability to predict changes in ozone levels between 2002 and 2005, a time period characterized by emission reductions associated with the EPA's Nitrogen Oxides State Implementation Plan as well as significant reductions in mobile source emissions. Model results for the summers of 2002 and 2005 were compared to simulations from a previous version of CMAQ to assess the impact of model updates on predicted pollutant response. Changes to the model treatment of emissions, meteorology and chemistry had substantial impacts on the simulated ozone concentrations. While the median bias for high summertime ozone decreased in both years compared to previous simulations, the observed decrease in ozone from 2002 to 2005 in the eastern US continued to be underestimated by the model. Additional "cross" simulations were used to decompose the model predicted change in ozone into the change due to emissions, the change due to meteorology and any remaining change not explained individually by these two components. The decomposition showed that the emission controls led to a decrease in modeled high summertime ozone close to twice as large as the decrease attributable to changes in meteorology alone. Quantifying the impact of retrospective emission controls by removing the impacts of meteorology during the control period can be a valuable approach for communicating to policy makers the net benefit of national control measures. Published by Elsevier Ltd.