ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.
ISA implementation and uncertainty: a literature review and expert elicitation study.
复制标题
ISA 实施和不确定性：文献综述和专家启发研究。
DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2010.11.021
复制
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Vlassenroot
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. V. D. Pas;V. Marchau;Warren E. Walker;G. P. V. Wee;S. Vlassenroot;S. Vlassenroot
欧盟平均每天有116人死于交通事故。据估计，每三起死亡事故中就有一起是超速造成的。目前的技术水平使得通过在车辆中放置智能限速器（所谓的伊萨设备）来使超速变得更加困难，甚至是不可能。虽然伊萨技术已经存在了一些年，减少道路交通伤亡人数一直是欧洲政治议程上的重要议题，但实施似乎仍然很遥远。专家们指出，围绕《国际海底管理伊萨》的执行仍有太多的不确定性，处理这些不确定性对执行《国际海底管理伊萨》至关重要。本文在文献研究的基础上，对不确定性进行了系统的、有代表性的盘点。此外，还对《国际伊萨》领域的专家进行了调查，询问哪些不确定性是《伊萨》实施的障碍，以及这些不确定性的不确定性有多大。我们发现，伊萨的长期效果和大规模实施的效果仍然是不确定的，是最有效的伊萨类型的实施的最重要的障碍。处理这些不确定性的一种方法是开始小规模实施，并逐步扩大渗透，以便了解伊萨如何随着时间的推移影响运输系统。
Each day, an average of over 116 people die from traffic accidents in the European Union. One out of three fatalities is estimated to be the result of speeding. The current state of technology makes it possible to make speeding more difficult, or even impossible, by placing intelligent speed limiters (so called ISA devices) in vehicles. Although the ISA technology has been available for some years now, and reducing the number of road traffic fatalities and injuries has been high on the European political agenda, implementation still seems to be far away. Experts indicate that there are still too many uncertainties surrounding ISA implementation, and dealing with these uncertainties is essential for implementing ISA. In this paper, a systematic and representative inventory of the uncertainties is made based upon the literature. Furthermore, experts in the field of ISA were surveyed and asked which uncertainties are barriers for ISA implementation, and how uncertain these uncertainties are. We found that the long-term effects and the effects of large-scale implementation of ISA are still uncertain and are the most important barriers for the implementation of the most effective types of ISA. One way to deal with these uncertainties would be to start implementation on a small scale and gradually expand the penetration, in order to learn how ISA influences the transport system over time.