Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Disruption to the U.K. Transport System
Skillful Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Disruption to the U.K. Transport System
复制标题
DOI：
10.1175/jamc-d-15-0102.1
复制
发表时间：
2016-02
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
E. Palin;Adam A. Scaife;E. Wallace;E. Pope;A. Arribas;A. Brookshaw
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
E. Palin;Adam A. Scaife;E. Wallace;E. Pope;A. Arribas;A. Brookshaw
摘要近年来，英国的公路、铁路和航空运输出现了多起引人注目的中断事件，这凸显了冬季天气对交通网络的影响。最近，使用英国气象局全球季节预报系统第5版（GloSea 5），在季节时间尺度上冬季北大西洋涛动（NAO）的可预测性方面取得了进展，为评估各种冬季天气的长期可预测性提供了及时的机会。对运输的影响。本研究探讨观测和预报的北大西洋涛动与各种英国气象资料之间的关系。冬季对公路、铁路和航空运输的影响。初步研究的结果表明，观测到的和预测的NAO指数与某些天气条件下的交通事故数量、离开伦敦希思罗机场的航班因天气而延误以及铁路网因天气而发生的事故等数量之间存在统计学上的显著关系。这支持了…
ABSTRACTThe impacts of winter weather on transport networks have been highlighted by various high-profile disruptions to road, rail, and air transport in the United Kingdom during recent winters. Recent advances in the predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at seasonal time scales, using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system, version 5 (GloSea5), present a timely opportunity for assessing the long-range predictability of a variety of winter-weather impacts on transport. This study examines the relationships between the observed and forecast NAO and a variety of U.K. winter impacts on transport in the road, rail, and aviation sectors. The results of this preliminary study show statistically significant relationships between both observed and forecast NAO index and quantities such as road-accident numbers in certain weather conditions, weather-related delays to flights leaving London Heathrow Airport, and weather-related incidents on the railway network. This supports the ...