Mental distress predicts divorce over 16 years: the HUNT study
Mental distress predicts divorce over 16 years: the HUNT study
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-015-1662-0
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发表时间：
2015-04-01
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Tambs, Kristian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Idstad, Mariann;Torvik, Fartein Ask;Tambs, Kristian
背景：精神痛苦与离婚之间的关系在文献中已经得到了很好的证实。解释通常分为两种不同的框架；社会选择（精神痛苦的人被从婚姻中选择出来）和社会原因（离婚导致精神痛苦）。尽管关于这一主题的文献相对较多，但对选择效应的研究较少，基于夫妻双方数据的研究也很少。本研究的目的是探讨个体和夫妻两个层面的选择效应。方法：目前的研究基于来自挪威代表性样本的夫妻数据，包括20,233对夫妇。长期选择效应通过考克斯比例风险模型进行了测试，以夫妻双方的精神痛苦作为基线，作为未来16年离婚的预测因素。进行了三组相同的分析。第一组包括了全部的样本，而第二组和第三组分别排除了在基线后的前四年和八年内离婚的夫妇。提出并检验了夫妻双方精神痛苦的交互作用项。结果：在所有分析中，一方有精神困扰的夫妻离婚的风险明显高于无精神困扰的夫妻。还有一个显著的相互作用效应表明，夫妻双方有精神问题的离婚风险高于夫妻一方有精神问题的离婚风险，但低于夫妻双方有精神问题的主要影响所能预期的离婚风险。结论：我们的研究结果表明，心理痛苦个体是被选择出婚姻的。我们还发现了对夫妻层面效应的支持，即配偶在精神痛苦方面的相似性在一定程度上似乎可以防止离婚。
Background: The association between mental distress and divorce is well established in the literature. Explanations are commonly classified within two different frameworks; social selection (mentally distressed people are selected out of marriage) and social causation (divorce causes mental distress). Despite a relatively large body of literature on this subject, selection effects are somewhat less studied, and research based on data from both spouses is scarce. The purpose of the present study is to investigate selection effects both at the individual level and the couple level.Methods: The current study is based on couple-level data from a Norwegian representative sample including 20,233 couples. Long-term selection effects were tested for by means of Cox proportional hazard models, using mental distress in both partners at baseline as predictors of divorce the next 16 years. Three identical sets of analyses were run. The first included the total sample, whereas the second and third excluded couples who divorced within the first 4 or 8 years after baseline, respectively. An interaction term between mental distress in husband and in wife was specified and tested.Results: Hazard of divorce was significantly higher in couples with one mentally distressed partner than in couples with no mental distress in all analyses. There was also a significant interaction effect showing that the hazard of divorce for couples with two mentally distressed partners was higher than for couples with one mentally distressed partner, but lower than what could be expected from the combined main effects of two mentally distressed partners.Conclusions: Our results suggest that mentally distressed individuals are selected out of marriage. We also found support for a couple-level effect in which spouse similarity in mental distress to a certain degree seems to protect against divorce.