Truck-Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination?
Truck-Driving Jobs: Are They Headed for Rapid Elimination?
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DOI：
10.1177/0019793919858079
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Monaco, Kristen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gittleman, Maury;Monaco, Kristen
作者分析了自动化对卡车司机工作的潜在影响，并得出结论，媒体预测数百万卡车司机的工作岗位即将消失是夸大其词。他们的结论基于三个主要因素。首先，由于对联邦统计中使用的职业分类系统的误解，卡车司机的数量经常被夸大。其次，卡车司机不仅仅是开车，这些非驾驶任务将继续被需求。第三，对技术的要求，再加上美国对卡车运行方式的复杂规定，意味着卡车运输的某些部分将比其他部分更容易实现自动化。长途卡车运输（占工作岗位的一小部分）将比短途卡车运输（或最后一英里）更容易实现自动化，而短途卡车运输是大部分就业岗位所在的领域。尽管技术可能会改变卡车运输业的现状，但这并不一定意味着对卡车司机的需求会像传统说法所说的那样彻底消失。
The authors analyze the potential effects of automation on the jobs of truck drivers and conclude that media accounts predicting the imminent loss of millions of truck-driving jobs are overstated. Their conclusion is based on three main factors. First, the count of truck drivers is often inflated due to a misunderstanding of the occupational classification system used in federal statistics. Second, truck drivers do more than drive, and these non-driving tasks will continue to be in demand. Third, the requirements of technology, combined with complex regulations over how trucks can operate in the United States, imply that certain segments of trucking will be easier to automate than others. Long-haul trucking (which constitutes a minority of jobs) will be much easier to automate than will short-haul trucking (or the last mile), in which the bulk of employment lies. Although technology will likely transform the status quo in the trucking industry, it does not necessarily imply the wholesale elimination of the demand for truck drivers, as conventional accounts suggest.