Climate changes of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes in the Paute basin, Ecuadorean Andes
Climate changes of hydrometeorological and hydrological extremes in the Paute basin, Ecuadorean Andes
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-18-631-2014
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
D. Mora;L. Campozano;F. Cisneros;G. Wyseure;P. Willems
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Mora;L. Campozano;F. Cisneros;G. Wyseure;P. Willems
对厄瓜多尔南部安第斯山脉的保特河流域沿着水文气象和水文变量的气候变化信号进行了调查。调整分位数扰动方法用于气候降尺度，气候变化对径流的影响进行了研究，流域内的两个嵌套集水区。分析是利用研究区域沿着7个有代表性的降雨和温度站点的长日系列进行的，并考虑了IPCC SRES情景A1B、A2和B1的全球和区域气候模式的气候变化信号。径流的测定是使用集总概念性径流模型。研究发现，几乎整个地区的温度变化范围是均匀的，平均每年增加约+2.0摄氏度。然而，一年中最温暖的时期比寒冷时期的变化要小。对于降雨量，尺度缩小的结果项目增加的平均年降雨深度和极端日降雨强度沿着流域的所有网站和所有的情况。在极端降雨强度的变化较大的潮湿地区。这些导致集水区径流量的变化，高峰流量增加，低峰流量减少。高峰流量的变化与极端降雨量的变化有关，而低峰流量的减少则是由于温度和潜在蒸散量的增加以及湿日数的减少。
Investigation was made on the climate change signal for hydrometeorological and hydrological variables along the Paute River basin, in the southern Ecuador Andes. An adjusted quantile perturbation approach was used for climate downscaling, and the impact of climate change on runoff was studied for two nested catchments within the basin. The analysis was done making use of long daily series of seven representative rainfall and temperature sites along the study area and considering climate change signals of global and regional climate models for IPCC SRES scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The determination of runoff was carried out using a lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The study found that the range of changes in temperature is homogeneous for almost the entire region with an average annual increase of approximately +2.0 C. However, the warmest periods of the year show lower changes than the colder periods. For rainfall, downscaled results project increases in the mean annual rainfall depth and the extreme daily rainfall intensities along the basin for all sites and all scenarios. Higher changes in extreme rainfall intensities are for the wetter region. These lead to changes in catchment runoff flows, with increasing high peak flows and decreasing low peak flows. The changes in high peak flows are related to the changes in rainfall extremes, whereas the decreases in the low peak flows are due to the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration together with the reduction in the number of wet days.