Quantitatively Measuring Transportation Network Resilience under Earthquake Uncertainty and Risks
Quantitatively Measuring Transportation Network Resilience under Earthquake Uncertainty and Risks
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DOI：
10.11648/j.ajce.20160404.17
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发表时间：
2016-06
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Manzhen Duan;Dayong Wu;Bo Dong;Lin Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Manzhen Duan;Dayong Wu;Bo Dong;Lin Zhang
交通网络面临着突发事件扰乱其正常运营的可能性，特别是在地震多发地区。因此，作为关键基础设施生命线的骨干，交通网络在灾难性地震后保持其韧性至关重要，以确保将处于危险中的人口有效疏散到安全区，并及时向受影响地区派遣应急资源。然而，预测交通网络的复原力和紧急情况的规划是一个极具挑战性的问题，特别是在地震不确定性和风险的情况下。本文旨在提出一个量化交通网络地震恢复力的模型。该模型的重点是概括交通网络对地震风险响应的定量弹性度量，而不是指定导致每个特定路段响应模式的走廊选择的特征。在该模型中，选择通行能力作为弹性度量，并引入三个通行能力降低指标来分别处理受影响的道路、建筑物和桥梁带来的不确定性和风险。最后，利用2008年四川地震数据对所提出的模型进行了验证。
Transportation network faces the possibility of sudden events that disrupts its normal operation, particularly in earthquake prone areas. As the backbone of critical infrastructure lifelines, it is therefore essential that transportation network retains its resilience after disastrous earthquakes to ensure efficient evacuation of at-risk population to safe zones and timely dispatch of emergency response resources to the impacted area. However, predicting transportation network resilience and planning for emergency situations is an extremely challenging problem, particularly under earthquake uncertainty and risks. This paper aims to propose a model to quantify seismic resilience of transportation network. The focus of this model is on generalizing quantitative resilience measures of transportation network response to earthquake risks rather than specifying characteristics of the corridor selections that lead to patterns of the response of each specific road segment. In the model, traffic capacity is selected as resilience measure and three capacity reduction indices are introduced to address the uncertainty and risks from impacted roads, buildings and bridges, respectively. Finally, the proposed models were validated by the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake data.