The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth
The Post-growth Challenge: Secular Stagnation, Inequality and the Limits to Growth
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.10.010
复制
发表时间：
2019-02-01
影响因子：
7
通讯作者：
Jackson, Tim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jackson, Tim
批评者长期以来一直质疑在有限的星球上指数增长的可行性（和可取性）。最近，主流经济学家开始提出一些增长的“长期”限制。增长率下降反过来又被认为加剧了不平等和政治民粹主义的兴起。本文探讨了这些新兴论点，特别关注长期停滞的动态。它探讨了劳动生产率增长下降的根本现象，并揭示了生产率增长、工资率和社会不平等之间的密切关系。它还指出了生产率增长下降与资源瓶颈之间的历史一致性（以及潜在的因果关系）。与一些主流观点相反，本文认为，近几十年来困扰发达经济体的不平等加剧并不是必然的，相反，它表明，即使面对充满挑战的基本面，也不惜一切代价追求增长。这一战略阻碍了技术创新、加剧了不平等并加剧了金融不稳定。本文认为，至少现在是时候让政策认真考虑低增长率可能成为“新常态”的可能性，并认真应对由此带来的“后增长挑战”。
Critics have long questioned the feasibility (and desirability) of exponential growth on a finite planet. More recently, mainstream economists have begun to suggest some 'secular' limits to growth. Declining growth rates have in their turn been identified as instrumental in increased inequality and the rise of political populism. This paper explores these emerging arguments paying a particular attention to the dynamics of secular stagnation. It examines the underlying phenomenon of declining labour productivity growth and unpacks the close relationships between productivity growth, the wage rate and social inequality. It also points to the historical congruence (and potential causal links) between declining productivity growth and resource bottlenecks. Contrary to some mainstream views, this paper finds no inevitability in the rising inequality that has haunted advanced economies in recent decades, suggesting instead that it lies in the pursuit of growth at all costs, even in the face of challenging fundamentals. This strategy has hindered technological innovation, reinforced inequality and exacerbated financial instability. At the very least, this paper argues, it is now time for policy to consider seriously the possibility that low growth rates might be 'the new normal' and to address carefully the 'post-growth challenge' this poses.