The Emergence of Probability
The Emergence of Probability
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概率的出现
DOI：
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发表时间：
1976
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
I. Hacking
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Fine;I. Hacking
希腊人以定性的方式讨论了随机性：德谟克利特（公元前460年），伊壁鸠鲁（公元前341年）……然而，概率的数学理论出现得很晚：——卡尔达诺（生于1501年，帕维亚）；在物理学中，概率论进入得很晚：-高斯的误差理论(~ 1800)-统计力学(玻尔兹曼，1871年)——这个概率论直到20世纪才被接受——爱因斯坦（1905年）将宏观布朗运动与原子性质联系起来——量子力学在20世纪20年代将真正的随机性带入物理学——统计和概率是由生物学问题驱动的：——弗朗西斯·高尔顿开创了生物计量学——卡尔·皮尔森发展了正态分布的数学，以理解连续特征的遗传——费雪（1918年）——展示了连续变化是如何被划分的本课程侧重于随机模型而不是统计推断，但这两者是紧密相连的
The Greeks discussed randomness in a qualitative way: Democritus (460BC), Epicurus (341BC) … Yet, mathematical theory of probability came very late:-Gerolamo Cardano (b. 1501, Pavia); Ars Magna 1545-published solutions of cubic and quartic equations (derived by Tartaglia & Ferrari)-1526 Liber de ludo alaea-a gambler's handbook In physics, probability entered very late:-Gauss' theory of errors (~ 1800)-statistical mechanics (Boltzmann, 1871)-this probabilistic theory was not accepted until the 20th C-Einstein (1905) linked macroscopic Brownian motion with atomic properties-quantum mechanics brought genuine randomness into physics in the 1920's Statistics and probability were driven by biological questions:-Francis Galton pioneered biometrics-Karl Pearson developed the mathematics of the normal distribution in order to understand inheritance of continuous traits-Fisher (1918)-showed how continuous variation could be partitioned into components: ANOVA-developed modern statistical inference The course focusses on stochastic models rather than statistical inference-but these are closely connected