Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C
Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Zhao, Jun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qian, Budong;Zhang, Xuebin;Zhao, Jun
在不同程度的全球变暖下，以科学为基础评估气候变化对种植系统的影响，对于告知利益攸关方哪些全球气候目标和潜在的适应战略可能是有效的至关重要。目前缺乏对全球变暖不同程度下气候变化对加拿大作物生产影响的全面评估。利用DayCent、DNDC和DSSAT模型估计了春小麦、油菜籽和玉米等三种主要作物在加拿大当前农业区的产量和产量变化。调查了四种全球平均气温变化比工业化前水平高1.5摄氏度、2.0摄氏度、2.5摄氏度和3.0摄氏度的变暖情景。来自20个全球气候模型的气候情景被用来驱动作物模拟模型，这些气候模型包括在耦合模型相互比较项目第五阶段，并通过多变量分位数映射偏差校正方法进行了缩小。模拟的产量变化表明，在所有四个温度水平下，对春小麦和油菜籽产量都有潜在的积极影响，特别是当模拟中考虑到播种日期改变时。对目前使用的短季玉米品种的共识较少，因为预计DNC只会增加产量，而DayCent的产量略有下降，并略有上升至2.5摄氏度，然后再由DSSAT下降3.0摄氏度。这些发现表明，全球变暖水平比工业化前水平高出3.0摄氏度的气候可能有利于加拿大的小谷物作物生产。然而，在全球变暖达到2.5摄氏度后，这些好处就下降了。
Science-based assessments of climate change impacts on cropping systems under different levels of global warming are essential for informing stakeholders which global climate targets and potential adaptation strategies may be effective. A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on Canada's crop production under different levels of global warming is currently lacking. The DayCent, DNDC and DSSAT models were employed to estimate changes in crop yield and production for three prominent crops including spring wheat, canola and maize in current agricultural regions of Canada. Four warming scenarios with global mean temperature changes of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level were investigated. Climate scenarios from 20 Global Climate Models, included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and downscaled with a multivariate quantile mapping bias correction method, were used to drive the crop simulation models. Simulated yield changes demonstrate a potentially positive impact on spring wheat and canola yields at all four temperature levels, particularly when shifting planting date is considered in the simulations. There was less consensus for the currently utilized short-season maize cultivars, as yields were only projected to increase byDNDCcompared to a slight decrease by DayCent and a slight increase up to 2.5 degrees C followed by a decrease at 3.0 degrees C by DSSAT. These findings indicate that climate at the global warming levels up to 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level could be beneficial for crop production of small grains in Canada. However, these benefits declined after warming reached 2.5 degrees C.