Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources
Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.04.005
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发表时间：
2015-08
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Ryoichi Komiyama;Y. Fujii
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ryoichi Komiyama;Y. Fujii
本文全面分析了在可能的核能情景下，日本到2050年的长期发电组合中，具有灵活电力资源（如节电和可充电电池）的可变可再生能源（VR）的最佳配置。进行研究，采用动态高时间分辨率的最优发电组合模型，这是制定为一个大规模的线性规划模型。模拟结果表明，在2050年全面淘汰核电和碳减排80%的情况下，我国电力系统的VR规模将得到进一步扩大，到2050年发电成本将比现有核电容量和无碳管制政策下增加4倍;如果VR被定位为未来可持续电力供应的主流，那么VR能源系统的长期成本降低是必要的。其次，更高水平的VR集成降低了LNG联合循环（LNGCC）的容量因子，这意味着确保LNGCC作为VR不稳定性的有偿斜坡发电机的挑战。最后，作为经济上最优的解决方案，节电是整合大规模VR并以有效的方式处理其功率输出的季节性不平衡的重要选择。
This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.