The Bayesian aerosol release detector: an algorithm for detecting and characterizing outbreaks caused by an atmospheric release of Bacillus anthracis.
The Bayesian aerosol release detector: an algorithm for detecting and characterizing outbreaks caused by an atmospheric release of Bacillus anthracis.
复制标题
贝叶斯气溶胶释放检测器：一种用于检测和表征由炭疽杆菌释放到大气中引起的爆发的算法。
DOI：
10.1002/sim.3093
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Depinay,Jean-Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hogan,WilliamR;Cooper,GregoryF;Wallstrom,GarrickL;Wagner,MichaelM;Depinay,Jean-Marc
炭疽杆菌室外气溶胶释放的早期检测和表征是一个重要的问题。随着卫生部门和其他政府机构采用更新的监测方法（如通过BioWatch计划进行环境监测和加强医疗监测）来解决这一问题，他们越来越多地获得更新类型的监测数据。然而，现有的监测数据的统计分析方法并不考虑最近的气象条件，因为人类分析人员在1979年斯维尔德洛夫斯克炭疽疫情的情况下，确定受害者的位置是否与发病前一周的气象条件一致。一种分析医疗监测数据和气象数据的算法，用于早期检测和表征B的户外释放。炭疽病它估计了一个后验分布的位置，数量，日期和时间的条件下释放已经发生。我们报告了BARD的概念验证评估，表明该方法具有前景，值得进一步开发和评估。版权所有© 2007约翰威利父子有限公司。
Early detection and characterization of outdoor aerosol releases ofBacillus anthracisis an important problem. As health departments and other government agencies address this problem with newer methods of surveillance such as environmental surveillance through the BioWatch program and enhanced medical surveillance, they increasingly have newer types of surveillance data available. However, existing methods for the statistical analysis of surveillance data do not account for recent meteorological conditions, as human analysts did in the case of the Sverdlovsk anthrax outbreak of 1979 to determine whether the locations of victims were consistent with meteorological conditions in the week preceding their onset of illness.This paper describes the Bayesian aerosol release detector (BARD), an algorithm that analyzes both medical surveillance data and meteorological data for early detection and characterization of outdoor releases ofB. anthracis. It estimates a posterior distribution over the location, quantity, and date and time conditioned on a release having occurred. We report a proof‐of‐concept evaluation of BARD, which demonstrates that the approach shows promise and warrants further development and evaluation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.