Market-mediated responses confound policies to limit deforestation from oil palm expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia
Market-mediated responses confound policies to limit deforestation from oil palm expansion in Malaysia and Indonesia
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市场调节的反应混淆了限制马来西亚和印度尼西亚油棕扩张造成的森林砍伐的政策
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1903476116
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
N. Ramankutty
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Taheripour;T. Hertel;N. Ramankutty
重要性马来西亚和印度尼西亚（M&I）油棕榈的迅速扩张导致了创纪录的森林砍伐、碳排放和生物多样性丧失。寻求解决这一问题的可持续性认证计划未能实现其既定目标，导致人们呼吁采取更积极的措施。在这里，我们探讨了全球经济框架内的3种替代保护政策，并发现市场介导的反应混淆了这些政策的有效性和分布影响。我们认为，在缺乏积极的森林保护激励措施的情况下，简单地限制棕榈油生产或消费不太可能阻止M&I的森林砍伐。我们还发现，M&I将通过采取国内行动而不是等待他人采取行动而在经济上受益。在过去的几十年里，全球对棕榈油的需求迅速增长。大部分产量增长发生在马来西亚和印度尼西亚（M&I）的碳和生物多样性丰富的林地，导致陆地碳排放和生物多样性损失达到创纪录的水平。这导致了各种自愿和强制性的监管行动，以及要求限制从M&I进口棕榈油。本文提供了一个全面的，全球性的经济和环境后果的评估，旨在限制砍伐森林的油棕榈扩张M&I的替代政策。它强调了在市场介导的溢出效应进入相关的油籽和农业商品和要素市场的情况下限制森林和生物多样性损失的挑战，无论是在M&I还是海外。事实上，在缺乏积极的森林养护激励措施的情况下，限制棕榈油生产或消费不太可能阻止M&I的毁林。旨在限制M&I棕榈油生产的政策也对经济产生了更广泛的影响，包括对消费者价格，真实的工资和福利的重大影响，这些影响在全球不同地区有所不同。一个关键的区别是，这一举措是在国内采取的，在这种情况下，M&I地区可以受益，还是由主要棕榈油进口国采取的，在这种情况下，M&I失去收入。尽管如此，这里考虑的所有政策都通过了全球二氧化碳减排效益超过其成本的社会福利测试。
Significance The rapid expansion of oil palm in Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I) has contributed to record levels of deforestation, carbon emissions, and biodiversity loss. Sustainability certification schemes seeking to address this problem have fallen short of their stated goals, leading to calls for more aggressive measures. Here we explore 3 alternative conservation policies within a global economic framework and find that market-mediated responses confound the efficacy and distributional impacts of these policies. We suggest that simply limiting palm oil production or consumption is unlikely to halt deforestation in M&I in the absence of active forest conservation incentives. We also find that M&I would benefit economically by taking domestic action rather than waiting for others to act. The global demand for palm oil has grown rapidly over the past several decades. Much of the output expansion has occurred in carbon- and biodiversity-rich forest lands of Malaysia and Indonesia (M&I), contributing to record levels of terrestrial carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. This has led to a variety of voluntary and mandatory regulatory actions, as well as calls for limits on palm oil imports from M&I. This paper offers a comprehensive, global assessment of the economic and environmental consequences of alternative policies aimed at limiting deforestation from oil palm expansion in M&I. It highlights the challenges of limiting forest and biodiversity loss in the presence of market-mediated spillovers into related oilseed and agricultural commodity and factor markets, both in M&I and overseas. Indeed, limiting palm oil production or consumption is unlikely to halt deforestation in M&I in the absence of active forest conservation incentives. Policies aimed at restricting palm oil production in M&I also have broader consequences for the economy, including significant impacts on consumer prices, real wages, and welfare, that vary among different global regions. A crucial distinction is whether the initiative is undertaken domestically, in which case the M&I region could benefit, or by major palm oil importers, in which case M&I loses income. Nonetheless, all policies considered here pass the social welfare test of global carbon dioxide mitigation benefits exceeding their costs.
DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.011
发表时间：
2014-11-01
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Richards, Peter D.;Walker, Robert T.;Arirna, Eugenio Y.
通讯作者：
Arirna, Eugenio Y.