Really Uncertain Business Cycles
Really Uncertain Business Cycles
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2423516
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发表时间：
2012-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
N. Bloom;Max Floetotto;Nir Jaimovich;Itay Saporta Eksten;S. Terry
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文献类型：
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作者：
N. Bloom;Max Floetotto;Nir Jaimovich;Itay Saporta Eksten;S. Terry
我们将不确定性冲击视为推动商业周期的新冲击。首先，我们证明微观经济不确定性具有很强的反周期性，在经济衰退期间尤其是 2007-2009 年大衰退期间急剧上升。其次，我们在异质企业的动态随机一般均衡模型中量化了时变不确定性对经济的影响。我们发现，合理校准的不确定性冲击可以解释 GDP 约 3% 的下降和反弹。此外，我们表明，不确定性的增加改变了政府政策的相对影响，使它们最初不太有效，然后变得更加有效。
We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. We find that reasonably calibrated uncertainty shocks can explain drops and rebounds in GDP of around 3%. Moreover, we show that increased uncertainty alters the relative impact of government policies, making them initially less effective and then subsequently more effective.