Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications
Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhe.2011.04.001
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发表时间：
2011-09-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Schuknecht, Ludger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Agnello, Luca;Schuknecht, Ludger
这项研究着眼于1980年至2007年期间18个工业化国家的样本的住房价格繁荣和萧条的特征和决定因素。从历史的角度来看，我们发现最近的房地产繁荣是过去四十年来最长的。多项概率模型的估计表明，国内信贷和利率对繁荣和萧条发生的概率有重大影响。此外，国际流动性对房地产繁荣的发生和与银行危机一起对萧条的发生起着重要作用。我们还发现，金融市场的放松管制强烈放大了国内金融部门对繁荣发生的影响。(C)2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This study looks at the characteristics and determinants of booms and busts in housing prices for a sample of eighteen industrialised countries over the period 1980-2007. From an historical perspective, we find that recent housing booms have been amongst the longest in the past four decades. Estimates of a Multinomial Probit model suggest that domestic credit and interest rates have a significant influence on the probability of booms and busts occurring. Moreover, international liquidity plays a significant role for the occurrence of housing booms and in conjunction with banking crises for busts. We also find that the deregulation of financial markets has strongly magnified the impact of the domestic financial sector on the occurrence of booms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.