Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model
Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-009-0727-0
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发表时间：
2010-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Joos, Fortunat
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Froelicher, Thomas L.;Joos, Fortunat
利用碳循环-气候耦合模型研究了21世纪温室气体排放对气候、海洋酸化和碳-气候反馈的历史遗留影响和长期影响。排放承诺情景为2100年后零排放，21世纪碳排放量分别为1800亿吨、900亿吨和1000亿吨至2500年。通过比较人为强迫的区域变化与内部非强迫的气候变率，量化了影响的可逆性和不可逆性。我们表明，历史排放和非co2因子的影响在区域尺度上基本上是可逆的。在没有未来碳排放的情况下，地表温度和降水的强迫变化比大多数陆地和海洋网格单元的内部变率要小。相比之下，21世纪持续的碳排放在大多数地区造成了百年至千年时间尺度上不可逆转的气候变化，即使在2100年停止排放，与海洋酸化和海平面上升有关的影响也会在几个世纪内继续加剧。文石是一种由海洋生物分泌的碳酸钙矿物形式，北极表层海洋的文石含量已接近饱和，而且仍然普遍存在。在高排放的情况下，为钙化生物提供栖息地的过饱和水的体积从工业化前的40%减少到2100年的25%，到2300年减少到10%。我们得出的结论是，考虑到人为碳排放的不可逆转影响，与京都进程相关的排放交易计划不应允许相对短寿命物质的排放与二氧化碳之间的交易。
The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO2 agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO2 given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions.