The impact of land cover change on storms in the Sydney Basin, Australia
The impact of land cover change on storms in the Sydney Basin, Australia
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.05.003
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发表时间：
2006-11
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
A. Gero;A. Pitman;G. Narisma;C. Jacobson;R. Pielke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Gero;A. Pitman;G. Narisma;C. Jacobson;R. Pielke
本研究采用数值模式（RAMS）在1公里的水平网格间隔在悉尼盆地，以评估土地覆盖变化对风暴的影响。多个风暴使用国家环境预测中心（NCEP）再分析数据进行了模拟与欧洲定居前的土地覆盖，然后重新模拟与代表悉尼目前的土地利用模式的土地覆盖。虽然所有模拟的风暴对土地覆盖变化的反应并不一致，但类似类型的风暴的反应方式相当。所有模拟的天气强迫风暴（例如由冷锋触发的风暴）对变化的陆面没有反应，而局部对流风暴对与陆面影响相关的触发机制高度敏感。经过悉尼盆地西南部较平坦农田的风暴速度加快，在一个特殊情况下，悉尼市中心密集的城市表面似乎引发了强烈的对流风暴。结果表明，动力环境主要触发风暴爆发。这在孤立的对流风暴类别中看得最清楚，海风锋通常决定风暴单体的起始位置。
This study has used a numerical model (RAMS) at 1 km horizontal grid intervals over the Sydney Basin to assess the impact of land cover change on storms. Multiple storms using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data were simulated with pre-European settlement land cover then re-simulated with land cover representing Sydney's current land use pattern. While all simulated storms did not respond to the change in land cover consistently, storms of similar types responded in comparable ways. All simulated synoptically forced storms (e.g. those triggered by cold fronts) were unresponsive to a changed land surface, while local convective storms were highly sensitive to the triggering mechanism associated with land surface influences. Storms travelling over the smoother agricultural land in the south-west of the Sydney Basin experienced an increase in velocity, and in a special case, the dense urban surface of Sydney's city core appears to trigger an intense convective storm. It is shown that the dynamical setting predominantly triggers storm outbreaks. This is seen most clearly in the isolated convective storm category where the sea breeze front often dictates the location of storm cell initiation.