Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment
Turkish energy sector development and the Paris Agreement goals: A CGE model assessment
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土耳其能源部门发展和《巴黎协定》目标：CGE 模型评估
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.030
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
M. Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Kat;S. Paltsev;M. Yuan
在2015年《巴黎协定》中，土耳其承诺到2030年温室气体(GHG)排放量比一切照旧(BAU)减少21%。我们预计，要实现这一承诺，可能需要减少对化石能源的依赖，并增加对低碳能源的投资。为了充分评估这些影响，我们开发了一个土耳其经济的可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，该模型结合了非电力部门的宏观经济代表和详细的电力部门代表。我们分析了几种情况来评估排放交易计划的影响：一种是包括计划中的核开发和可再生能源补贴计划(BAU)，另一种是不允许使用核技术(NOT)。我们的评估显示，2030年，在没有政策的情况下，一次能源将主要是石油、天然气和煤炭。然而，根据一项排放交易计划，由于碳成本较高，到2030年，BAU和非BAU的燃煤发电都将消失。有了核能(BAU)，由于由此产生的能源组合，温室气体排放量比非核能低3.1%，从而实现了更低的碳价格(BAU为50美元/tCO2，非BAU为70美元/tCO2)。我们的结果表明，到2030年，以大约0.8-1%的适度经济成本实现土耳其的承诺是可能的。
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, Turkey pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 21% by 2030 relative to business-as-usual (BAU). We expect that fulfilling this pledge will likely require a reduced reliance on fossil-based energy and additional investments in low-carbon energy sources. To fully assess these impacts, we develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Turkish economy that combines macroeconomic representation of non-electric sectors with a detailed power sector representation. We analyze several scenarios to assess the impact of an emission trading scheme: one including the planned nuclear development and a renewable subsidy scheme (BAU), and another with no nuclear technology allowed (NoN). Our assessment shows that in 2030, without policy, primary energy will be mainly oil, natural gas and coal. Under an emission trading scheme, however, coal-fired power generation vanishes by 2030 in both BAU and NoN due to the high cost of carbon. With nuclear (BAU), GHG emissions are 3.1% lower than NoN due to the resulting energy mix, allowing for a lower carbon price ($50/tCO2 in BAU compared to $70/tCO2 in NoN). Our results suggest that fulfillment of Turkey's pledge may be possible at a modest economic cost of about 0.8–1% by 2030.