Climate Change and Its Attribution in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China
Climate Change and Its Attribution in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China
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DOI：
10.3390/su11247206
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发表时间：
2019-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Y. Zeng;Zhixiang Zhou;Zhaogui Yan;Mingjun Teng;Chunbo Huang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Zeng;Zhixiang Zhou;Zhaogui Yan;Mingjun Teng;Chunbo Huang
坝区气候变化是与水坝相关的环境问题之一。然而，影响坝区气候变化的主要因素和机制仍不清楚。本研究采用线性回归、观测减重分析（OMR）方法和多源数据来评估中国三峡库区的气候变化，并调查争议因素（土地覆盖变化、环境气候和水库蓄水）中的主要影响因素。结果表明，1973-2013年期间，年雾日数（FD）、年平均气温（T）和年平均相对湿度（RH）趋势变化的转折点出现在1996年左右，而年降水量（PRE）则没有出现明显的转折点。 1996年之后的变化趋势比1996年之前更加陡峭。这些变化主要与环境气候密切相关。特别是，温度与环境温度显着相关（1979-2013年：r = 0.799，p < 0.01），并且它们的相关性在1990年后更强（r = 0.842，p < 0.01）。此外，FD、T 和 RH 的转折点也与土地利用/覆盖变化相关。此外，水库蓄水表现出明显的增湿效果（OMR RH与水域面积相关：r = 0.566，p < 0.01）。我们的研究结果支持了坝区气候变化主要受环境气候变化影响的观点。
Climate change in dam areas is one of the environmental problems associated with dams. However, the main factors and mechanisms that impact climate change in dam areas remain unclear. In this study, linear regression, the observed minus reanalyzed (OMR) method, and multi-source data are used to assess climate change in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China and investigate the main impact factors among the controversial factors (land cover change, environmental climate, and reservoir impoundment). Our results indicate that turning points of trend changes for annual fog days (FD), annual average temperature (T), and annual average relative humidity (RH) occurred at around 1996 during the period 1973–2013, and annual precipitation (PRE) suggested no obvious turning point. The change trends after 1996 were steeper than before 1996. These changes are mainly closely correlated with environmental climate. In particular, temperature was significantly correlated with environmental temperature (1979–2013: r = 0.799, p < 0.01), and their relationship was stronger after 1990 (r = 0.842, p < 0.01). Moreover, the turning point for FD, T, and RH also correlated with land use/cover change. In addition, reservoir impoundment showed an obvious humidification effect (OMR RH correlated with water area: r = 0.566, p < 0.01). Our findings support the view that climate change in dam areas is mainly affected by environmental climate changes.