The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment
The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment
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DOI：
10.1162/00335530360535171
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发表时间：
2003-02-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Duggan, MG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Autor, DH;Duggan, MG
1984年至2001年，非老年人领取社会保障残疾保险收入的比例上升了60%，达到530万受益人。尽管总体健康状况有所改善，但项目的快速增长似乎可以通过降低筛查严格性、降低对低技能工人的需求以及收入替代率的意外增加来解释。我们估计，1984年后，这些力量的总和使高中辍学者的劳动力退出倾向增加了一倍，降低了美国就业率。S.失业率下降半个百分点。稳态计算预示着直接投资的接收率将进一步增加40%。
Between 1984 and 2001, the share of nonelderly adults receiving Social Security Disability Insurance income (DI) rose by 60 percent to 5.3 million beneficiaries. Rapid program growth despite improving aggregate health appears to be explained by reduced screening stringency, declining demand for less skilled workers, and an unforeseen increase in the earnings replacement rate. We estimate that the sum of these forces doubled the labor force exit propensity of displaced high school dropouts after 1984, lowering measured U. S. unemployment by one-half a percentage point. Steady state calculations augur a further 40 percent increase in the rate of DI receipt.