Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management
Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management
复制标题
DOI：
10.1029/2021ef002487
复制
发表时间：
2022-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Myers, Daniel T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ficklin, Darren L.;Null, Sarah E.;Myers, Daniel T.
全球变暖改变了进出地表的水流量，加剧了水文循环，导致极端降水事件增加，干旱期延长。以前的水文强化工作主要集中在降水，没有共同考虑蒸发需求的变化和植物如何应对这些变化。通过最先进的气候模型，我们研究了水文强化的预计变化及其在复杂化水资源管理中的作用，使用一个框架，该框架考虑了降水盈余和蒸发需求。使用结合了日降水量和日蒸发需求量之间差异的度量（盈余事件）和蒸发需求超过降水的连续天数（赤字时间），我们表明，在全球范围内，盈余事件将变得更大（中度和高排放情景分别为+11.5%和+18.5%），并且两者之间的持续时间更长（+5.1%; +9.6%），其中北方变化最大。这些极端事件的年内发生将对主要河流流域的现有水管理基础设施造成压力，在中等排放情景下，2070-2100年期间有三分之一以上的年份将是水文密集型的（盈余强度和赤字时间的年内大幅增加），是历史基线的三倍。在水库容量大的流域（例如，亚马逊河、刚果河和多瑙河流域），这些地区人口众多，灌溉着大量农田，并养育着受威胁和濒危的水生物种。随着水文的持续强化，在水资源基础设施和管理中增加灵活性将是至关重要的。
Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle by altering the rate of water fluxes to and from the terrestrial surface, resulting in an increase in extreme precipitation events and longer dry spells. Prior hydrological intensification work has largely focused on precipitation without joint consideration of evaporative demand changes and how plants respond to these changes. Informed by state-of-the-art climate models, we examine projected changes in hydrological intensification and its role in complicating water resources management using a framework that accounts for precipitation surplus and evaporative demand. Using a metric that combines the difference between daily precipitation and daily evaporative demand (surplus events) and consecutive days when evaporative demand exceeds precipitation (deficit time), we show that, globally, surplus events will become larger (+11.5% and +18.5% for moderate and high emission scenarios, respectively) and the duration between them longer (+5.1%; +9.6%) by the end of the century, with the largest changes in the northern latitudes. The intra-annual occurrence of these extremes will stress existing water management infrastructure in major river basins, where over one third of years during 2070-2100 under a moderate emissions scenario will be hydrologically intense (large intra-annual increases in surplus intensity and deficit time), tripling that of the historical baseline. Larger increases in hydrologically intense years are found in basins with large reservoir capacity (e.g., Amazon, Congo, and Danube River Basins), which have significant populations, irrigate considerable farmland, and support threatened and endangered aquatic species. Incorporating flexibility into water resource infrastructure and management will be paramount with continued hydrological intensification.