Probabilistic Coastal Storm Surge Analyses using Synthesized Tracks Based on Historical Typhoon Parameters
Probabilistic Coastal Storm Surge Analyses using Synthesized Tracks Based on Historical Typhoon Parameters
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DOI：
10.2112/si75-227.1
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发表时间：
2016-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hyeon-Jeong Kim;S. Suh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Hyeon-Jeong Kim;S. Suh
摘要Kim，H. J.和Suh，S.W.，2016.基于历史台风参数合成路径的沿海风暴潮概率分析。In：Vila-Concejo，A.;布鲁斯，E.;肯尼迪，D.M.，和McCarroll，R.J.（eds.），第14届国际沿海研讨会论文集（澳大利亚悉尼）。沿海研究杂志，特刊，第75号，页。1132 - 1136。椰子溪（佛罗里达），ISSN 0749-0208。风暴潮引发的自然灾害日益威胁到低洼沿海地区和基础设施。虽然已经进行了几次尝试，以尽量减少沿海灾害的概率，确定性和混合分析，潮汐和浪涌之间的非线性相互作用，使风暴潮分析的困难。在这项研究中，一个有效的方法来评估风暴潮的脆弱性，通过应用随机生成方案称为主题气旋风险模型（TCRM）。根据历史路径数据，用中心气压调整合成风暴的最大半径和风速，以代表最合适的概率。通过使用Perl脚本的全自动程序，总共合成了177，244个风暴;这些风暴在包含随机潮汐运动的高级循环（ADCIRC）模型中充当强迫。通过与实测资料的比较，表明基于历史路径的台风暴潮模拟方法能较好地再现台风暴潮的概率性，并与真实的情况具有相似的特征。此外，模拟结果还表明，由于大潮环境中高潮波动的叠加作用，登陆西海岸的台风比登陆南海岸的台风引起更高的增水高度。因此，该方法可以应用于针对重现期和未来气候变化的沿海灾害减灾措施。然而，参数，如台风涡旋的移动速度和形状将是很重要的浪涌模拟，因此，更适当的处理这些特性应在未来的研究。
ABSTRACT Kim, H.J. and Suh, S.W., 2016. Probabilistic coastal storm surge analyses using synthesized tracks based on historical typhoon parameters. In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 1132 - 1136. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Natural hazards driven by storm surge increasingly threaten low-lying coastal areas and infrastructures. Although several attempts have been made to minimize coastal hazards by incorporating probabilistic, deterministic, and hybrid analyses, the nonlinear interactions between the tide and surge makes difficulties in storm surge analyses. In this study, an efficient approach to assess the vulnerability to storms surges is developed by applying a random generation scheme called the Topical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM). The maximum radii and wind speed of synthetic storms were adjusted with central pressure based on historical track data to represent the most appropriate probability. A total of 177,244 storms were synthesized by a fully automated procedure using a Perl script; these acted as forcing in ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model incorporating random tidal motion. By comparing the results of the hypothetical typhoon surges with observed data showed that the suggested synthetic storms based on historical tracks satisfactorily reproduce probabilistic surge elevations and show almost similar characteristics in real situation. Moreover, the simulation results showed typhoons heading to the west coast could cause higher surge heights than those landing on the south coast because of superposition of high tidal fluctuations in a macro-tidal environment. Thus, this method can be applied to coastal hazards mitigation measures against return periods and future climate change. However, parameters such as moving speed and shape of the typhoon vortex would be important in surge simulations; hence, more appropriate treatment of these characteristics should be studied in future research.