Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight
Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight
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观点：气候对农业的影响：路灯下寻找钥匙
DOI：
10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101954
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
6.5
通讯作者：
de Lima, Cicero Z.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hertel, Thomas W.;de Lima, Cicero Z.
本文对估计气候对农业和粮食系统影响后果的文献进行了批判性评估。这些文献主要集中在大气中CO2浓度升高、温度升高和降水量变化对主要作物产量的影响。虽然对粮食安全至关重要，但我们认为，研究人员已经倾向于在数据和模型丰富的“路灯下”测量影响。我们认为，以前的工作在很大程度上忽略了气候变化对农业的绝大多数潜在经济影响。更广泛的观点必须将影响分析扩展到土地以外的投入，包括气候变化对劳动生产率以及购买的中间投入的影响。气候变化对全要素生产率增长率的影响，以及支撑农业产出增长这一关键驱动力的基本知识资本更快贬值的可能性，在很大程度上被忽视了。这一更广泛的观点还必须更多地关注非主食作物，虽然从热量的角度来看，非主食作物不太重要，但在纠正目前世界各地许多饮食中微量营养素缺乏症方面至关重要。最后，本文以数值模拟的方式说明了气候影响的有限投入和产出范围在多大程度上可能导致对粮食安全和经济福利后果的严重低估。特别重要的是，潮湿热带地区的人类可能比许多适应性很好的作物（如水稻）更容易受到热应激的影响。由于忽略了热应激对人类的影响，大多数关于气候影响的研究都大大低估了世界上最贫穷经济体的福利损失。
This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as for purchased intermediate inputs. Largely overlooked is the impact of climate change on the rate of total factor productivity growth and the potential for more rapid depreciation of the underlying knowledge capital underpinning this key driver of agricultural output growth. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare. Of particular significance is the finding that humans in the humid tropics are likely more vulnerable to heat stress than are many of the well-adapted crops, such as rice. By omitting the impact of heat stress on humans, most studies of climate impacts greatly understate the welfare losses in the world’s poorest economies.
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影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Moore FC;Baldos U;Hertel T;Diaz D
通讯作者：
Diaz D
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Mader, T. L.
通讯作者：
Mader, T. L.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1615922114
发表时间：
2017-03-21
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Liang, Xin-Zhong;Wu, You;Kennedy, Jennifer A.
通讯作者：
Kennedy, Jennifer A.
研究滞后和溢出
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
J. Alston;J. S. James;M. Andersen;P. Pardey
通讯作者：
P. Pardey
发展中国家的气候变化减缓政策和贫困
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zekarias Hussein;T. Hertel;A. Golub
通讯作者：
A. Golub