Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran
Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138705
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发表时间：
2020-08-10
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Ghanbari, Negar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ahmadi, Mohsen;Sharifi, Abbas;Ghanbari, Negar
SARS CoV-2（COVID-19）冠状病毒病例在全球范围内得到确认，数百万人被隔离。更好地了解感染传播的有效参数可以为COVID-19带来合理的测量。气候因素对COVID-19传播的影响可能在新型冠状病毒爆发中发挥重要作用。在这项研究中，主要参数，包括感染COVID-19的人数，人口密度，省内移动，到研究期结束的感染天数，平均温度，平均降水量，湿度，风速和平均太阳辐射，以了解这些参数如何影响COVID-19在伊朗的传播？使用偏相关系数（PCC）和Sobol '-Jansen方法分析变量与COVID-19传播率的影响和相关性。敏感性分析结果表明，人口密度、省内流动与感染暴发有直接关系。相反，风速、湿度和太阳辐射值较低的地区感染率较高，这有助于病毒的生存。与南部省份相比，德黑兰、马赞达兰、阿尔博尔兹、吉兰和库姆等省由于人口密度高、省内流动和湿度大，更容易受到感染。(C)2020由Elsevier B. V.出版
SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol'-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intraprovincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.