Do respiratory epidemics confound the association between air pollution and daily deaths?
Do respiratory epidemics confound the association between air pollution and daily deaths?
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DOI：
10.1034/j.1399-3003.2000.16d26.x
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发表时间：
2000-10-01
影响因子：
24.3
通讯作者：
Schwartz, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braga, ALF;Zanobetti, A;Schwartz, J
每天的死亡都与空气污染有关。这种关联可能会被不受控制的风险因素所混淆。为了估计空气污染和健康影响之间的关联的呼吸道流行病引起的潜在混淆，进行了空气污染和每日死亡的时间序列研究，从五个美国城市获得了所有年龄段的每日死亡记录：芝加哥，IL;底特律，MI;明尼阿波利斯，MN;匹兹堡，PA;和西雅图，WA。每日水平的颗粒与50%截止空气动力学直径为10妈妈（PM10）和天气测量。使用泊松回归进行城市特定分析，调整时间趋势，环境温度，露点，气压和星期几。每个流行期使用三次多项式在芝加哥，PM10浓度增加10 μ g.m（-3）（滞后0-1）与每日死亡人数增加相关（0.81%，95%可信区间（CI）0.54-1.09）;底特律（0.87%，95%CI 0.60-1.15）、明尼阿波利斯（1.34%，95%CI 0.78-1.90）、匹兹堡（0.84%，95%CI 0.51-1.18）和西雅图（0.52%，95%CI 0.11-0.94）。当控制呼吸道流行病时，观察到PM 10的影响略有下降（芝加哥9%、底特律11%、明尼阿波利斯3%、匹兹堡5%和西雅图15%）。PM10浓度的总体影响在控制流行病之前为0.85%（95%CI 0.60-1.10）/10 mug.m（-3），控制流行病之后为0.78%（95%CI 0.51-1.05）。
Daily deaths are associated with air pollution. This association might be confounded by uncontrolled risk factors. In order to estimate the potential confounding caused by respiratory epidemics of the association between air pollution and health effects, a time series study of air pollution and daily deaths was carried out,Daily records of deaths for all ages were obtained from five US cities: Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Minneapolis, MN; Pittsburgh, PA; and Seattle, WA. Daily levels of particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 10 mum (PM10) and weather measurements were obtained. City-specific analysis was carried out using Poisson regression, adjusting for time trend, ambient temperature, dew point, barometric pressure and day of the week. A cubic polynomial was used for each epidemic period (greater than or equal to 10 days of excessive pneumonia hospital admissions), and a dummy variable was used to control for isolated epidemic days,A 10-mug.m(-3) increase in PM10 concentration (lag 0-1) was associated with increased daily deaths in Chicago (0.81%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-1.09); Detroit (0.87%, 95% CI 0.60-1.15), Minneapolis (1.34%, 95% CI 0.78-1.90),Pittsburgh (0.84%, 95% CI 0.51-1.18) and Seattle (0.52%, 95% CI 0.11-0.94). When controlling for respiratory epidemics, small decreases in the PM10 effect were observed (Chicago 9%, Detroit 11%, Minneapolis 3%, Pittsburgh 5%, and Seattle 15%). The overall effect of PM10 concentration was 0.85% (95% CI 0.60-1.10) per 10 mug.m(-3) before controlling for epidemics and 0.78% (95% CI 0.51-1.05) after.This study showed that the association between air pollution and daily deaths is not due to failure to control for influenza or pneumonia epidemics.