Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace
Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace
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冲突后正义与可持续和平
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Lie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Gates;H. M. Binningsbø;T. Lie
在全球范围内，没有系统的研究审查冲突后司法对和平持续时间的影响。本文试图通过建立一个新构建的数据集（Binningsbo, Elster, and Gates 2005）来填补这一空白，该数据集报告了各种形式的冲突后司法努力（审判，清洗，赔偿受害者和真相委员会）以及与放弃冲突后司法（大赦和流放）相关的过程。它调查了冲突后司法对冲突后和平持续时间的长期影响。采用Cox比例风险模型分析冲突后不同类型的司法对暴力冲突再次发生前的和平期长度的影响。冲突后的审判以及其他类型的司法确实在民主和非民主社会中导致更持久的和平，但其结果是薄弱的，因此难以概括。然而，非报复性正义的形式（即对受害者的赔偿和真相委员会）与民主社会的和平持续时间密切相关，但对非民主社会来说并不重要。大赦往往是不稳定的，通常与较短的和平持续时间有关，但流亡往往导致更持久的和平。
No systematic study has examined the effect of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace on a global basis. This paper attempts to fill that void by building on a newly constructed dataset (Binningsbo, Elster, and Gates 2005), which reports the presence of various forms of post-conflict justice efforts (trials, purges, reparation to victims, and truth commissions) as well as processes associated with abstaining from post-conflict justice (amnesty and exile). It investigates the long-term effects of post-conflict justice on the duration of peace after conflict. It uses a Cox proportional hazard model to analyze the influence of the various types of post-conflict justice on the length of the peace period before the recurrence of violent conflict. Post-conflict trials as well as other types of justice do lead to a more durable peace in democratic as well as non-democratic societies, but the results are weak and are therefore difficult to generalize. Forms of non-retributive justice (that is, reparations to victims and truth commissions), however, are strongly associated with the duration of peace in democratic societies, but are not significant for non-democratic societies. Amnesty tends to be destabilizing and generally associated with shorter peace duration, but exile tends to lead to a more durable peace.