When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace after Civil Wars
When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace after Civil Wars
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当内战再次发生时：内战后持久和平的条件
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Quinn
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. D. Mason;Mehmet Gurses;Patrick T. Brandt;J. Quinn
我们认为，内战后和平的持续时间主要取决于前一次内战的结果在多大程度上保留了多重主权的条件，以及内战后的环境在多大程度上鼓励持不同政见者群体诉诸暴力而不是维持和平。危险模型表明，前一次冲突的结果确实会影响和平的持续时间，而且这种影响会随着时间的推移而变化。引进维持和平部队对和平持续时间有重大积极影响。我们还发现了种族分裂与内战后和平持续时间之间存在曲线关系的证据。根据这些结果，我们最后就如何在内战后维持和平提出了建议。
We argue that the duration of the peace after civil wars is mainly a function of the extent to which the outcome of the previous civil war preserved a condition of multiple sovereignty and the extent to which the post-civil war environment creates incentives for dissident groups to resort to violence rather than sustain the peace. Hazard models suggest that the outcome of the previous conflict does affect the duration of the peace, and this effect varies across time. The introduction of peacekeeping forces has a substantial positive effect on peace duration. We also find evidence of a curvilinear relationship between ethnic fractionalization and post-civil war peace duration. Based on these results, we conclude with recommendations for how peace can be maintained after a civil war.