How Closely Do Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments Predict Field Behavior?
How Closely Do Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments Predict Field Behavior?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01242.x
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Norwood, F. Bailey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang, Jae Bong;Lusk, Jayson L.;Norwood, F. Bailey
我们比较了三种偏好诱导方法（假设选择，非假设选择和非假设排名）和三种离散选择计量经济学模型（多项logit [MNL]，独立可用性logit [IAL]和随机参数logit [RPL]）预测三种不同产品类别（碎牛肉，小麦粉和洗碗液）的实际零售购物行为的能力。总体而言，我们发现一个高水平的外部效度。我们的具体结果表明，非假设的启发方法，特别是非假设的排名方法，在预测零售额的假设选择实验。我们还发现，RPL可以有上级的预测性能，但MNL预测同样好，在某些情况下。
We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, nonhypothetical choices, and nonhypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit [MNL], the independent availability logit [IAL], and the random parameter logit [RPL]) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, we find a high level of external validity. Our specific results suggest that the nonhypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the nonhypothetical ranking method, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the RPL can have superior predictive performance, but that the MNL predicts equally well in some circumstances.