Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment
Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment
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DOI：
10.1890/14-1227.1
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发表时间：
2015-02-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Moller, A. P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Evangeliou, N.;Balkanski, Y.;Moller, A. P.
在本文中，我们分析了1986年核灾难后被污染的乌克兰和白俄罗斯森林的现状和未来。使用几个模型，结合遥感数据和观测，我们研究了这些森林的气候变化如何影响火灾状况。我们调查了Cs-137位移的可能性在欧洲通过研究以前的火灾事件，并研究了三个火灾场景，取决于不同的排放高度的Cs-137，假设10%的森林受到火灾的影响。实地测量和模型模拟证实，许多放射性污染物仍然存在于这些网站在极其大量的东欧森林的特点是大，高度火灾的补丁，有利于极端冠火灾的发展。自1986年以来，两个受污染地区的极端火灾事件与干旱之间一直存在正相关关系。自1986年以来，由于树木死亡率增加和分解率下降，该地区的凋落物碳储量翻了一番;死树和堆积的凋落物反过来可以为野火提供燃料，这对未来几年的放射性重新分布构成了很高的风险。2002年、2008年和2010年的大火导致Cs-137向南迁移;在欧洲重新沉积的Cs-137累积量相当于切尔诺贝利灾难后沉积量的8%。然而，大量的铯-137仍然残留在这些森林中，这些铯-137可能与大量其他危险的、寿命长的、难处理的放射性核素沿着重新活动。我们预测，与气候变化相关的易燃区域的扩大将导致未来放射性污染的高风险，并出现特征性火灾高峰。由于人员不足和缺乏资金，该地区目前的消防基础设施不足。我们的数据为未来的火灾事件提供了第一个令人信服的预测，并提供了科学见解，可以为世界各地高度污染地区（如切尔诺贝利）提供信息和促进基于证据的政策决策。
In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote-sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of Cs-137 displacement over Europe by studying previous fire events, and examined three fire scenarios that depended on different emission altitudes of Cs-137, assuming that 10% of the forests were affected by fires. Field measurements and modeling simulations confirmed that numerous radioactive contaminants are still present at these sites in extremely large quantities.Forests in Eastern Europe are characterized by large, highly fire-prone patches that are conducive to the development of extreme crown fires. Since 1986, there has been a positive correlation between extreme fire events and drought in the two contaminated regions. Litter carbon storage in the area has doubled since 1986 due to increased tree mortality and decreased decomposition rates; dead trees and accumulating litter in turn can provide fuel for wildfires that pose a high risk of redistributing radioactivity in future years. Intense fires in 2002, 2008, and 2010 resulted in the displacement of Cs-137 to the south; the cumulative amount of Cs-137 re-deposited over Europe was equivalent to 8% of that deposited following the initial Chernobyl disaster. However, a large amount of Cs-137 still remains in these forests, which could be remobilized along with a large number of other dangerous, long-lived, refractory radionuclides. We predict that an expanding flammable area associated with climate change will lead to a high risk of radioactive contamination with characteristic fire peaks in the future. Current fire-fighting infrastructure in the region is inadequate due to understaffing and lack of funding. Our data yield the first cogent predictions for future fire incidents and provide scientific insights that could inform and spur evidence-based policy decisions concerning highly contaminated regions around the world, such as those of Chernobyl.