An investment analysis for China's sustainable development based on inverse data envelopment analysis
An investment analysis for China's sustainable development based on inverse data envelopment analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.11.129
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发表时间：
2017-01
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lei Chen;Yingming Wang;F. Lai;Feng Feng-Feng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lei Chen;Yingming Wang;F. Lai;Feng Feng-Feng
面对环境退化，可持续发展已成为地球仪的共同目标。制定科学的投资方案对促进我国经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。然而，对这种可持续发展投资计划的研究却很少。本文提出了一种新的具有非期望输出的逆数据拟合分析方法，从自然、调节和最优等不同角度给出了几种有科学依据的投资方案。通过该方法，决策者可以根据自身实际的可持续发展目标，科学地预测具体的投资额，有利于减少未来投资的盲目性。并提出了新的理想视角，为提高可持续发展水平指明了方向。结合灰色预测模型GM（1，1），对2015-2024年中国可持续发展投资问题进行了分析。结果表明：劳动力投资分布不均衡、资本和能源投资过多，短期内是中国可持续发展的严重障碍，长期来看，劳动力和资本投资需求将继续沿着能源投资需求的下降而增加，适当加强环境规制不会影响投资需求的总体水平。同时，对中国可持续发展的改善方向进行了探讨，结果表明，中国大部分发展中地区和欠发达地区都有很大的改善潜力。最后提出了一些建议，为中国的可持续发展创造更好的条件。
In the face of environmental degradation, sustainable development has become a common goal across the globe. Making a scientifically based investment scheme is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of China's economy. However, there is scarce research related to such an investment scheme of sustainable development. This paper proposes a new inverse data envelopment analysis method with undesirable outputs to make several scientifically based investment schemes from different perspectives, namely, the natural, regulation, and optimal perspectives. By this method, decision makers can scientifically forecast the specific amount of investment based on their actual sustainable development objectives, which is conducive for reducing the blindness of investment in the future. In addition, a new ideal perspective is defined to guide a definite direction for improving the level of sustainable development. Combined with the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), the methods proposed by this paper were then applied to analyze the investment problem for China's sustainable development during the 2015–2024 period. The results show that: the unbalanced distribution of labor investment and the excessive investment in capital and energy are serious barriers to China's sustainable development in the short term; and in the long term, the demand for investment in labor and capital will continue to increase along with a lower demand for energy investment, and that appropriately strengthening environmental regulations will not affect the overall demand for investment. Meanwhile, improvement directions for improving China's sustainable development are discussed, and the results show that most of developing and undeveloped regions in China have great potential for improvement. Finally, some suggestions are proposed in order to create better conditions for China's sustainable development.