Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles
Fixed-time descriptive statistics underestimate extremes of epidemic curve ensembles
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DOI：
10.1038/s41567-020-01121-y
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发表时间：
2020-12-08
期刊：
影响因子：
19.6
通讯作者：
Lehmann, Sune
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Juul, Jonas L.;Graesboll, Kaare;Lehmann, Sune
与流行病预测相关的不确定性通常是通过基于参数组合的流行病轨迹集合来模拟的。我们表明，总结此类集合的标准方法系统地抑制了关键的流行病学信息。
The uncertainty associated with epidemic forecasts is often simulated with ensembles of epidemic trajectories based on combinations of parameters. We show that the standard approach for summarizing such ensembles systematically suppresses critical epidemiological information.