Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011.
Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005
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发表时间：
2016-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mueller V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thiede B;Gray C;Mueller V
我们研究气候变化对南美洲人类迁移的影响。我们的分析借鉴了在8个南美国家进行的25次人口普查中对15-40岁成年人的2100多万次观察。为了解决先前研究中与方法多样性相关的限制，我们采用了一种通用的分析方法，并在所有国家对移民和气候进行了统一定义。我们估计了气候变化对整体移民的影响，并调查了性别，年龄和社会经济群体，国家和历史气候条件的异质性。我们还按目的地的农村/城市地位对移徙进行了分类。我们发现，暴露于每月的温度冲击有最一致的影响，相对于每月的降雨量冲击和多年的气候逐渐变化的迁移。我们还发现了人口群体和国家之间异质性的证据。按目的地的农村/城市地位分列的分析表明，大部分与气候有关的省际移民都流向城市地区。总的来说，我们的研究结果强调了环境与移民联系的复杂性，并挑战了对气候变化的线性和整体移民反应的简单化叙述。
We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.