Energy, Forest, and Indoor Air Pollution Models for Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal-猫眼课题宝

DOI：

10.1659/mrd-journal-d-10-00027.1

发表时间：

2010-05

期刊：

影响因子：

通讯作者：

中科院分区：

其他

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作者：

F. Salerno;G. Viviano;S. Thakuri;B. Flury;R. Maskey;S. Khanal;D. Bhuju;M. Carrer;Silu Bhochhibhoya;M. T. Melis;F. Giannino;A. Staiano;Fabrizio Cartenì;S. Mazzoleni;A. Cogo;A. Sapkota;Sandeep Shrestha;R. K. Pandey;Emanuela Manfredi

摘要本文介绍了尼泊尔萨加玛塔国家公园和缓冲区（SNPBZ）偏远山区能源、森林和人类健康问题的管理导向研究成果。该研究基于更广泛、综合的参与框架，最终旨在用于适应性管理。本研究的重点是应用参与式建模框架来解决与能源需求和消耗、森林状况和室内空气污染相关的问题，这些问题被利益相关者定义为需要解决的重要问题。这些模型是使用通用设计开发的，允许用户友好地适应其他环境（免费下载：http://hkkhpartnership.org）。此外，我们与所有建模参与者合作模拟管理场景，旨在就系统的理解达成共识，并支持决策者不仅能够响应变化，而且能够预测变化。重要的是，系统动态评估发现，SNPBZ 森林受到薪材需求增加（由于旅游业增长而产生）的影响，而薪材是主要能源之一。选定的森林显示，从 1992 年到 2008 年，森林生物量平均减少了 38%。这表明一切照旧的情况不太可能维持当前的森林状况；事实上，这种保护需要用替代能源替代 75% 的薪材。与此同时，薪材使用量减少 75%（粪便使用量减少 80%）将使室内一氧化碳 (CO) 浓度降低至世界卫生组织设定的 CO 暴露标准限值。

Abstract This paper presents the results of management-oriented research on energy, forest, and human health issues in a remote mountain area, the Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone (SNPBZ), Nepal. The research was based on a broader, integrated participatory framework ultimately intended for use in adaptive management. The present study focused on the application of a participatory modeling framework to address problems related to energy demand and consumption, forest condition, and indoor air pollution, which were defined by the stakeholders as important issues to be addressed. The models were developed using a generalizing design that allows for user-friendly adaptation to other contexts (free download at http://hkkhpartnership.org). Moreover, we simulated management scenarios in collaboration with all modeling actors with the aim of building consensus on the understanding of the system as well as supporting decision-makers' capacity not only to respond to changes, but also to anticipate them. Importantly, the system dynamics assessment found that the SNPBZ forests are affected by an increasing demand for fuelwood (occurring due to tourism growth), as one of the main sources of energy. Selected forests show an average reduction of 38% in forest biomass from 1992 to 2008. This shows that the business-as-usual scenario is unlikely to result in the preservation of the current forest status; in fact, such preservation would require 75% of fuelwood to be replaced with alternative energy sources. At the same time, a 75% reduction of fuelwood use (and an 80% reduction of dung use) would reduce indoor carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations to the standard limits for CO exposure set by the World Health Organization.

Energy, Forest, and Indoor Air Pollution Models for Sagarmatha National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal

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