Do Class Size Reductions Protect Students from Infectious Disease? Lessons for Covid-19 Policy from Flu Epidemic in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
Do Class Size Reductions Protect Students from Infectious Disease? Lessons for Covid-19 Policy from Flu Epidemic in Tokyo Metropolitan Area
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3643196
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发表时间：
2022-02
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Oikawa;Ryuichi Tanaka;S. Bessho;H. Noguchi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Oikawa;Ryuichi Tanaka;S. Bessho;H. Noguchi
我们评估了2015年、2016年和2017年班级规模（即教室学生人数）对流感疫情导致的班级关闭发生率的因果关系，采用工具变量法和Maimonides规则对东京大都会区最大的一个城市的公立中小学学生的行政数据进行了分析。考虑到日本规定的教室面积为63平方米，班级规模的减少可以提高教室内学生之间的社交距离。我们发现，减少班级规模对减少流感导致的班级关闭是有效的：班级规模减少一个单位，班级关闭减少约5%；形成最多27人的小班，满足预防流感和新冠肺炎等飞沫感染建议的1.5米社交距离，减少90%左右的班级关闭。此外，我们发现学生年龄越大，班级规模缩小的影响越大。我们的研究结果为中小学社会距离政策在保护学生免受包括COVID-19在内的飞沫传染病方面的有效性提供了支持性证据。
We evaluate the causal effect of class size (i.e., number of students in a classroom) on incidence of class closure due to flu epidemic in 2015, 2016, and 2017, applying an instrumental variable method with the Maimonides rule to administrative data of public primary and middle school students in one of the largest municipalities within the City of Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Given the classroom area of 63m2 set by regulation in Japan, class size reduction improves social distancing among students in a classroom. We find that class size reduction is effective to reduce class closure due to flu: one unit reduction of class size decreases class closure by about 5%; and forming small classes with 27 students at most, satisfying the social distancing of 1.5 m recommended to prevent droplet infection including influenza and COVID-19, reduces class closure by about 90%. In addition, we find that the older are students, the larger are the effects of class size reduction. Our findings provide supportive evidence for the effectiveness of social distancing policy in primary and middle schools to protect students from droplet infectious disease including COVID-19.