Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?
Supply Bottlenecks: Where, Why, How Much, and What Next?
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供应瓶颈：在哪里、为什么、多少以及下一步是什么？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Mariano Spector
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oya Celasun;Aiko Mineshima;Niels;Jing Zhou;Mariano Spector
2021年，供应限制影响了经济复苏，并推高了通胀。我们发现，在欧元区，制造业产出和GDP将分别增长6%和2%，如果没有供应瓶颈，制造业生产者价格通胀的一半不会发生。更依赖差异化投入的行业（如汽车）受到的打击更大。在全球范围内，停产可以解释高达40%的供应冲击。去年年底，行业专家预计，到2022年年中，汽车供应短缺将基本消失，到2022年底，更广泛的瓶颈将消失，但考虑到Omicron浪潮，中断将持续更长时间，可能会持续到2023年。由于供应限制加剧了价格压力，政策制定者面临的挑战是在不允许高通胀根深蒂固的情况下支持复苏。JEL分类编号：E23，E3
Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the absence of supply bottlenecks. Sectors that are more reliant on differentiated inputs—such as autos— were harder hit. Globally, shutdowns can explain up to 40 percent of the supply shocks. Late last year industry experts expected supply shortages for autos to largely dissipate by mid-2022 and broader bottlenecks by end-2022, but given the Omicron wave, disruptions will last for longer, possibly into 2023. With supply constraints adding to price pressures, the challenge for policymakers is to support the recovery without allowing high inflation to become entrenched. JEL Classification Numbers: E23, E3