Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules
Optimal Inflation Targeting Rules
复制标题
最优通胀目标规则
DOI：
10.7208/9780226044736-005
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Woodford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Giannoni;M. Woodford
本文描述了一系列替代经济模型的最优货币政策的灵活的通货膨胀目标规则，与目标标准，取决于模型的规格。它显示了对于每种规格，哪些预测范围应该重要，以及除了通货膨胀之外还应该考虑哪些变量。在一般性讨论中考虑的各种因素的可能的定量意义，然后通过估计一个小的，美国货币传导机制的结构模型与明确的优化基础进行评估。一个最佳的政策规则计算的估计模型，并显示对应于一个多阶段的通货膨胀预测目标的过程。在何种程度上实际的美国政策在过去的二十年中符合最优目标标准，然后考虑。
This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy for a range of alternative economic models in terms of a flexible inflation targeting rule, with a target criterion that depends on the model specification. It shows which forecast horizons should matter, and which variables besides inflation should be taken into account, for each specification. The likely quantitative significance of the various factors considered in the general discussion is then assessed by estimating a small, structural model of the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism with explicit optimizing foundations. An optimal policy rule is computed for the estimated model, and shown to correspond to a multi-stage inflation-forecast targeting procedure. The degree to which actual U.S. policy over the past two decades has conformed to the optimal target criteria is then considered.