Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand
Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand
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DOI：
10.1038/nature02225
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发表时间：
2004-01-22
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Burke, DS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cummings, DAT;Irizarry, RA;Burke, DS
登革热是一种蚊子传播的病毒，每年感染5000 - 1亿人(1)。在这些感染中，有20万至50万是严重的、威胁生命的登革热出血热（DHF）(2)。大规模、未预料到的登革出血热流行往往使卫生系统不堪重负(3)。了解登革出血热发病的时空格局将有助于分配防治这些流行病的资源。本文研究了1983年至1997年期间泰国72个省发生的85万例感染病例的DHF发病率的时空动态。我们使用经验模态分解(4)的方法来证明在DHF的发生中存在时空行波。我们观察到这种波动是在三年周期的方差组成部分，这被认为反映了宿主病原体种群动态（5,6）。该波从泰国最大的城市曼谷发出，以每月148公里的速度径向移动。这一发现为检测和描述导致泰国登革出血热时空动态的关键过程提供了一个重要的起点。
Dengue fever is a mosquito- borne virus that infects 50 - 100 million people each year(1). Of these infections, 200,000 - 500,000 occur as the severe, life- threatening form of the disease, dengue haemorrhagic fever ( DHF)(2). Large, unanticipated epidemics of DHF often overwhelm health systems(3). An understanding of the spatial - temporal pattern of DHF incidence would aid the allocation of resources to combat these epidemics. Here we examine the spatial - temporal dynamics of DHF incidence in a data set describing 850,000 infections occurring in 72 provinces of Thailand during the period 1983 to 1997. We use the method of empirical mode decomposition(4) to show the existence of a spatial - temporal travelling wave in the incidence of DHF. We observe this wave in a three- year periodic component of variance, which is thought to reflect host pathogen population dynamics(5,6). The wave emanates from Bangkok, the largest city in Thailand, moving radially at a speed of 148 km per month. This finding provides an important starting point for detecting and characterizing the key processes that contribute to the spatial - temporal dynamics of DHF in Thailand.