Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade in East Asia
Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade in East Asia
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自由贸易协定对东亚贸易的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Okabe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Okabe
2000年代以后，东亚地区的双边和诸边自由贸易协定（FTA）数量迅速增加，落后于世界RTAs的趋势。许多研究通过应用各种方法应对了弄清楚自由贸易协定对该地区影响的挑战。本文前半部分回顾了东亚自由贸易协定事后评估的实证研究。纵观早期关于东盟自由贸易区（以下简称 AFTA）（该地区第一个区域性 FTA）影响的研究，我们发现很少有研究发现 AFTA 在 20 世纪 90 年代具有强劲的贸易创造效应。然而，自 2000 年代以来，一些使用产品或部门详细贸易和关税数据的研究表明，自由贸易区下的关税取消促进了东盟国家之间的区域贸易。最近的研究还表明，就 AFTA 而言，关税取消不一定是促进货物贸易的最重要措施。减少非关税措施、贸易便利化和原产地规则协调、提高自贸协定可用性等自由化措施是除取消关税之外更重要的便利成员间贸易的措施。同样，对于东亚双边自贸协定，一些事后评估研究表明，这些自贸协定在一定程度上对贸易产生了积极影响。这些研究表明，积极影响不仅来自自由贸易协定下的关税取消，还来自其他自由化措施。本文的后半部分讨论了对东盟+1 五个自由贸易协定影响的基本实证分析，由于数据缺乏，这些分析尚未得到充分研究。我们发现，中国—东盟自贸区（ACFTA）和韩国—东盟自贸区（AKFTA）的贸易创造效应体现在成员国之间的工业供给和资本货物方面。此外，ACFTA 也促进了消费品贸易。另一方面，东盟-日本FTA（AJCEP）的影响在很多情况下并未显现出来。这些结果表明，当成员之间的生产和销售网络已经发展起来时，这些区域自由贸易协定会增强对贸易的积极影响。同时，成员与先行自贸协定相同的新自贸协定应将关税取消等自由化措施设定得比先行自贸协定更加自由化。从有效性的角度来看，区域全面经济伙伴关系等较新的区域自贸协定需要比本地区现有的东盟+1自贸协定有更高的自由化水平和更便宜的程序让成员利用该自贸协定。
The number of bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) in East Asia has increased rapidly after the 2000s behind the world trend of RTAs. Many studies tackled the challenge of figuring out the impact of FTAs in this region by applying various methodologies. The first half of this paper reviews empirical studies of ex-post evaluation of FTAs in East Asia. A look at earlier studies on the impact of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (hereafter AFTA), the first regional FTA in this region revealed that few studies found robust trade creation effects of AFTA in the 1990s. However, since the 2000s, several studies using detailed trade and tariff data on products or sectors indicate that tariff elimination under AFTA promoted regional trade among ASEAN countries. Recent studies also show tariff elimination is not necessarily the most important measure to promote trade in goods in the case of AFTA. Liberalisation measures--such as reduction of non-tariff measures, trade facilitation and coordination of rules of origin, and improvement of FTA usability--are more important measures to facilitate trade between members other than tariff elimination. Likewise, with regard to bilateral FTAs in East Asia, some ex-post evaluation studies show that these FTAs positively impact trade at some extent. These studies show that the positive impacts are brought not only by tariff elimination under the FTAs but also by other liberalisation measures. The latter half of this paper discusses a basic empirical analysis on the impact of five ASEAN+1 FTAs which have not yet been sufficiently investigated because of shortage of data. We found that trade creation effects of ASEAN-China FTA (ACFTA) and ASEAN-Korea FTA (AKFTA) appear in industrial supplies and capital goods between members. Also, trade in consumption goods is facilitated under ACFTA. On the other hand, the impact of ASEAN-Japan FTA (AJCEP) is not revealed in many cases. These results suggest that these regional FTAs potentiate the positive impact on trade when production and sales networks among members have already been developed. At the same time, the newer FTAs whose members are the same as precedent FTAs should set tariff elimination and other liberalisation measures at more liberalised level than precedent FTAs. From the perspective of effectiveness, the newer regional FTA in this region, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, needs to have a higher level of liberalisation and more inexpensive procedures for members to utilize said FTA than the existing ASEAN+1 FTAs in this region.