For everything there is a season: Analysing periodic mortality patterns with the cyclomort r package
For everything there is a season: Analysing periodic mortality patterns with the cyclomort r package
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DOI：
10.1111/2041-210x.13305
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发表时间：
2019-10-28
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Joly, Kyle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gurarie, Eliezer;Thompson, Peter R.;Joly, Kyle
许多重要的人口统计过程都是季节性的，包括生存。对于许多物种来说，在一年中的某些时候，死亡风险明显高于其他时候，无论是因为资源稀缺，还是因为对捕食者或疾病的易感性很高，或者两者兼而有之。尽管生存模型在野生动物科学中很重要，但目前还没有工具来估计这些“死亡季节”的高峰、持续时间和相对重要性。我们提出了周期模型，这是一个用可靠的可信区间估计任意数量的死亡季节的时间、持续时间和强度的r程序包。该一揽子计划包括一种模型选择方法，以确定死亡季节的数量，并测试死亡季节是否在不同的分组因素中有所不同。用模拟数据说明了周期风险函数模型和周期风险函数的工作流程。然后，我们估计了两个北美驯鹿种群的死亡季节，这两个种群的死亡模式截然不同，包括不同的死亡高峰数量和时间，以及一个种群随时间的显著变化。Cyclomort程序包是为了估计野生动物的死亡季节而开发的，但该程序包可以模拟任何具有周期性成分的事件发生时间过程。
Many important demographic processes are seasonal, including survival. For many species, mortality risk is significantly higher at certain times of the year than at others, whether because resources are scarce, susceptibility to predators or disease is high, or both. Despite the importance of survival modelling in wildlife sciences, no tools are available to estimate the peak, duration and relative importance of these 'seasons of mortality'. We present cyclomort, an r package that estimates the timing, duration and intensity of any number of mortality seasons with reliable confidence intervals. The package includes a model selection approach to determine the number of mortality seasons and to test whether seasons of mortality vary across discrete grouping factors. We illustrate the periodic hazard function model and workflow of cyclomort with simulated data. We then estimate mortality seasons of two caribou Rangifer tarandus populations that have strikingly different mortality patterns, including different numbers and timing of mortality peaks, and a marked change in one population over time. The cyclomort package was developed to estimate mortality seasons for wildlife, but the package can model any time-to-event processes with a periodic component.