Risk analysis of tractor overturns on catfish farms.
Risk analysis of tractor overturns on catfish farms.
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鲶鱼养殖场拖拉机翻车风险分析。
DOI：
10.1080/1059924x.2010.510438
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Cole,HenryP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stephens,WalterB;Ibendahl,GregoryA;Myers,MelvinL;Cole,HenryP
拖拉机翻倒会导致鲶鱼养殖场发生致命和非致命伤害，但当拖拉机配备防滚翻保护结构 (ROPS) 和安全带时，这些伤害可以大大减轻。这项研究分析了密西西比州鲶鱼养殖场中未配备 ROPS 的拖拉机的比例，以及为这些拖拉机改装 ROPS 和安全带的成本，以及通过增加保护措施获得的预期收益。为了确定农民是否有经济动力来改造旧拖拉机，使用了净现值框架，因为预期收益需要多年才能实现。 ROPS 改造是一项立即发生的一次性成本，因此不需要计算现值，即时间段 0。根据这项研究，添加 ROPS 在发生翻车时将提供 22,877 美元的净收益。在处理小型农场（<125 英亩）时，拖拉机的平均使用时间大约是大型农场的平均拖拉机的两倍，单台拖拉机的额外工作时间导致每年改造 ROPS 的总收益为 9.45 美元，而对于大型农场，净收益为 4.70 美元（= 125 英亩）。鉴于最便宜的改造费用为 147 美元，小型农场需要使用拖拉机 15.5 年才能获得预期效益超过成本。考虑到翻车可能产生的大量成本，如果没有 ROPS 保护，可能会产生巨大的溢价。换句话说，采用 ROPS 的翻车成本可能比不采用 ROPS 的要小，因为 ROPS 减少了更严重的事故。
Fatal and nonfatal injuries occur on catfish farms as a result of tractor overturns, but these injuries can be greatly mitigated when a tractor is equipped with a rollover protective structure (ROPS) and seatbelt. This study analyzed the proportion of tractors on catfish farms in Mississippi not equipped with ROPS and the cost of retrofitting those tractors with a ROPS and seatbelt as compared to the expected benefits gained from adding the protection. To determine if farmers have the financial incentive to retrofit older tractors, a net present value framework was used because the expected benefits occur over a number of years. The ROPS retrofit is a one-time cost that occurs immediately, and thus the present value does not need to be calculated, i.e., time period 0. According to this study adding ROPS will provide a net benefit of $22,877 in the event of an overturn. When dealing with small farms (<125 acres) where an average tractor is used for approximately twice as many hours compared to an average tractor on large farms, the extra hours worked by a single tractor resulted in total benefits of retrofitting ROPS of $9.45 per year, whereas for large farms the net benefit is $4.70 (=125 acres). Given that the least expensive retrofit is $147, it would take 15.5 years of tractor use on the small farms for the expected benefits to outweigh the cost. Given the large range of costs that could occur due to an overturn, there could be a significant premium for not having ROPS protection. In other words, there likely is a smaller range of costs from an overturn with ROPS than without ROPS because ROPS reduces the more serious incidents.