Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World
Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World
复制标题
气候模型确认：从哲学到预测现实世界的气候
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_11
复制
发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.1
通讯作者：
R. Knutti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Knutti
数值模式的哲学观点有助于我们理解概念，但不能预测未来的气候。另一方面，孤立地研究气候模型的结果可能会诱使我们相信我们模拟的结果实际上会发生。一个模型本身既不正确也不错误;它只是或多或少地作为一种用于某种目的的代表性工具。我认为，过程的理解是关键的判断，当这个工具是足够的洞察力相关的真实的世界的某些方面。只有通过理解气候的组成部分和变量之间的关系及其在模型中的表现，并结合理解我们的模型应该做什么，我们才能更好地利用它们。
Philosophical perspectives on numerical models help us to understand concepts, but will not predict the climate in the future. Studying climate model results in isolation on the other hand may seduce us to believe what we simulate will actually happen. A model is neither correct nor wrong as such; it is simply more or less useful as a representational tool for a certain purpose. I argue that process understanding is the key to make judgments about when this tool is adequate for insight relevant to certain aspects of the real world. It is only through understanding the relationships in components and variables of the climate and their representation in models, combined with understanding what our models are supposed to do, that we can make better use of them.
影响因子：
18.3
作者：
Rowlands, Daniel J.;Frame, David J.;Allen, Myles R.
通讯作者：
Allen, Myles R.