The Field of Eyewitness Memory Should Abandon Probative Value and Embrace Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis
The Field of Eyewitness Memory Should Abandon Probative Value and Embrace Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis
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DOI：
10.1177/1745691612442906
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发表时间：
2012-05-01
影响因子：
12.6
通讯作者：
Mickes, Laura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wixted, John T.;Mickes, Laura
Clark(2012)强调了一个在目击者记忆文献中没有得到足够重视的重要问题：降低错误识别率的排列程序(一个理想的效果)往往也会降低正确的识别率(一个不希望的效果)。在这些情况下，要确定哪种诊断方法更好并非易事。Clark(2012)表明，如果同时考虑成本和收益，错误识别率较低的程序可能与较高的社会总成本相关。除了成本问题，我们认为Clark(2012)的观察对评估一系列程序的诊断性能具有深远的影响。具体地说，目击者记忆领域试图通过使用各种证据价值的衡量标准(如诊断率)来区分列队程序。然而，与直觉相反，证据价值并不是一个相关的考虑因素。取而代之的是，应该使用接收器工作特性分析来比较阵容程序，这是在其他应用领域(如放射学)中的常规做法。
Clark (2012) highlights an important issue that has received inadequate attention in the eyewitness memory literature: lineup procedures that reduce the false identification rate (a desirable effect) often tend to reduce the correct identification rate as well (an undesirable effect). Determining which procedure is diagnostically superior under those conditions is not easy. Clark (2012) showed that the procedure with the lower false identification rate could be associated with higher overall costs to society once costs and benefits are both taken into consideration. Beyond the issue of cost, we argue that Clark's (2012) observation has far reaching implications for evaluating the diagnostic performance of a lineup procedure. Specifically, the field of eyewitness memory has attempted to differentiate between lineup procedures by using various measures of probative value (such as the diagnosticity ratio). However, contrary to intuition, probative value is not a relevant consideration. Instead, lineup procedures should be compared using receiver operating characteristic analysis, as is routinely done in other applied fields (such as radiology).