Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth
Counting Chickens when they Hatch: Timing and the Effects of Aid on Growth
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02482.x
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发表时间：
2012-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Bazzi, Samuel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Clemens, Michael A.;Radelet, Steven;Bazzi, Samuel
最近的研究对外国援助收入与经济增长之间的跨国关系给出了大相径庭的估计。我们重新分析了三个最具影响力的已发表的援助增长研究的数据，严格保留了它们的回归规范，对援助效果的时间进行了合理的假设，并且没有使用可疑的工具。所有三项研究设计都表明，援助增加之后，投资和经济增长平均都会增加。最合理的解释是，援助在受援国引起一定程度的增长，尽管这种关系的幅度不大，在受援国之间差异很大，在援助水平较高时减少。
Recent research yields widely divergent estimates of the cross-country relationship between foreign aid receipts and economic growth. We re-analyse data from the three most influential published aidgrowth studies, strictly conserving their regression specifications, with sensible assumptions about the timing of aid effects and without questionable instruments. All three research designs show that increases in aid have been followed on average by increases in investment and growth. The most plausible explanation is that aid causes some degree of growth in recipient countries, although the magnitude of this relationship is modest, varies greatly across recipients and diminishes at high levels of aid.