An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network
An evolutionary analysis on the effect of government policies on electric vehicle diffusion in complex network
复制标题
复杂网络中政府政策对电动汽车扩散影响的演化分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2019.01.070
复制
发表时间：
2019-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Tang, Yunshu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Jingjing;Jiao, Jianling;Tang, Yunshu
为了应对严峻的能源和环境挑战，电动汽车(EVS)已被各国政府彻底考虑。尽管中国已经成为最大的电动汽车市场，但目前电动汽车的局限性和补贴的减少导致了一个充满挑战的未来。为了促进电动汽车的扩散，我们使用复杂网络演化博弈方法来探讨不同规模网络中政府政策对电动汽车扩散的动态影响。结果表明，在相同的政府政策层面上，随着网络中制造商数量的增加，电动汽车的扩散程度也相应增加。在制造商目前的网络规模下，在供给侧，税收和补贴政策的效应可以分别推动电动汽车扩散到0.82和0.86。燃油汽车(FV)号牌限制和消费者购车补贴是需求侧的有效政策，两者都可以促进电动汽车扩散到0.84。与消费者购买补贴相比，对制造商的生产补贴对电动汽车扩散的影响更好。无论是税收和补贴政策，还是FV牌照限制和EV购车补贴政策，都无法实现EV的全面扩散。最后，结合中国汽车产业的现状，针对不同时期给出了相应的政策建议。
In response to severe energy and environmental challenges, electric vehicles (EVs) have been thoroughly considered by governments. Although China has become the largest EV market, currently the limitations of EVs and decreasing subsidies have led to a challenging future. To promote EV diffusion, we use a complex network evolutionary game method to explore the dynamic impacts of government policies on EV diffusion in different scale networks. The results show that with the increase in manufacturers in the network, the degree of EV diffusion increases accordingly at the same government policy level. In the present network scale of manufacturers, on the supply side, the effects of tax and subsidy policies can respectively promote EV diffusion to 0.82 and 0.86. Fuel vehicle (FV) license plate restrictions and consumer purchase subsidies are effective policies on the demand side, which both can promote EV diffusion to 0.84. Compared with consumer purchase subsidies, production subsidies for manufacturers have better effects on EV diffusion. Neither the tax and subsidy policies nor the FV license plate restriction and EV purchase subsidy policies can realize full EV diffusion. Finally, combined with the current status of China's automobile industry, the corresponding policy recommendations for different periods are given.