Intersectional inequities and longitudinal prevalence estimates of opioid use disorder in Massachusetts 2014-2020: a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis.
Intersectional inequities and longitudinal prevalence estimates of opioid use disorder in Massachusetts 2014-2020: a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis.
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2014-2020 年马萨诸塞州阿片类药物使用障碍的交叉不平等和纵向患病率估计：多样本捕获-再捕获分析。
DOI：
10.1016/j.lana.2024.100709
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发表时间：
2024
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Barocas,JoshuaA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wang,Jianing;Bernson,Dana;Erdman,ElizabethA;Villani,Jennifer;Chandler,Redonna;Kline,David;White,LauraF;Barocas,JoshuaA
随着全球过量用药的持续增加，需要准确的估计来了解风险人群的规模并解决健康差异。捕获-再捕获方法可以用于代替几乎任何地理级别的直接估计（例如，城市，州，国家），以估计阿片类药物使用障碍（OUD）的人口规模。我们进行了多样本捕获-再捕获分析，年龄在18-64岁的人，估计OUD的患病率在马萨诸塞州从2014年至2020年，分层的性别和种族/ethnication.MethodsWe使用了七个全州的行政数据源在个人层面上。我们开发了对数线性模型来估计未知的OUD影响人群。不确定性的特点是使用95%置信区间（95%CI）的总计数和患病率estimation.FindingsThe估计OUD患病率从5.47%（95%CI = 4.89%，5.98%）在2014年增加到5.79%（95%CI = 5.34%，6.19%）在2020年。西班牙裔女性的患病率翻了一番（2014年为2.46%，2020年为4.23%），从2014年到2019年，非西班牙裔黑人男性和西班牙裔男性的患病率上升到近10%。从2014年到2019年，黑人非西班牙裔女性的估计数增加了一倍多（3.39%至7.09%），然后在2020年下降到5.69%。解释这项研究是第一个使用捕获-再捕获方法在州一级提供二元性别和种族/民族的OUD患病趋势估计数。使用这些方法作为国际过量用药危机的应急措施，可以使司法管辖区适当地分配资源和有针对性的干预措施，以边缘化的人口。
BackgroundAs overdoses continue to increase worldwide, accurate estimates are needed to understand the size of the population at risk and address health disparities. Capture-recapture methods may be used in place of direct estimation at nearly any geographic level (e.g., city, state, country) to estimate the size of the population with opioid use disorder (OUD). We performed a multi-sample capture-recapture analysis with persons aged 18–64 years to estimate the prevalence of OUD in Massachusetts from 2014 to 2020, stratified by sex and race/ethnicity.MethodsWe used seven statewide administrative data sources linked at the individual level. We developed log-linear models to estimate the unknown OUD-affected population. Uncertainty was characterized using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) on the total counts and prevalence estimates.FindingsThe estimated OUD prevalence increased from 5.47% (95% CI = 4.89%, 5.98%) in 2014 to 5.79% (95% CI = 5.34%, 6.19%) in 2020. Prevalence among Hispanic females doubled (2.46% in 2014 to 4.23% in 2020) and prevalence rose to nearly 10% among Black non-Hispanic males and Hispanic males from 2014 through 2019. Estimates for Black non-Hispanic females more than doubled from 2014 through 2019 (3.39% to 7.09%), and then decreased to 5.69% in 2020.InterpretationThis study is the first to provide OUD prevalence trend estimates by binary sex and race/ethnicity at a state level using capture-recapture methods. Using these methods as the international overdose crisis worsens can allow jurisdictions to appropriately allocate resources and targeted interventions to marginalised populations.FundingNIDA.